Mariners-Astros prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, August 19

It’s another critical battle in the AL West as the Houston Astros look to snap the scorching Seattle Mariners’ four-game winning streak in the middle game of a three-game weekend series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Righty Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.80 ERA) will take the hill for the visitors, while Houston is hoping that lefty Framber Valdez (9-8, 3.31) can get back on track after some rough recent results.

This series is critical in the AL playoff picture, with the Astros sitting 2.5 games behind their in-state rival, the Texas Rangers, in the AL West. Seattle has caught fire in the second half, with a 29-13 record across July and August that now has them in possession of the third and final AL Wild Card spot and just five games behind Texas in the division.

Houston enters as -162 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mariners at +136. The run total is set at 8.

Mariners-Astros picks: Saturday, August 19th

Injury report

Mariners

Out: SS J.P. Crawford (concussion protocol), OF Jarred Kelenic (foot), C Tom Murphy (thumb), SP Bryan Woo (forearm)

Astros

Out: RP Phil Maton (elbow), 1B Jose Abreu (spine), OF/DH Michael Brantley (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Logan Gilbert vs. Framber Valdez

Gilbert hasn’t quite taken the leap to stardom that we expected this season, but he’s still been a very sturdy option in the Mariners rotation. The righty has a 3.63 ERA across three starts this month, sandwiching a sensational effort against the Padres (12 Ks, one hit over seven innings) with two starts in which he allowed a combined seven runs over 10.1 innings. Gilbert’s fastball command has been a bit all over the place, and he’s still searching for one of his many secondaries (slider, curve, splitter) to emerge as a true go-to, leaving him frustratingly inconsistent despite a ton of talent.

Valdez has struggled mightily since starting the month with a no-hitter against the Guardians. The lefty has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) and four homers in 14.2 innings across his last two starts. Of course, he’s still among the league’s premier workhorses, pitching into the seventh and eighth innings consistently, and it’s worth noting that a lot of the recent damage against him has come during the third or fourth time through the order. Still, his curveball hasn’t been nearly the weapon we’re accustomed to, leading Valdez to rely almost exclusively on his sinker and hope that balls in play turn into outs.

Over/Under pick

The first game in this series, a 2-0 Seattle win, fell well short of hitting this number. In eight games between the two teams this season, the score has eclipsed the 8-run mark four times, but only once in the most recent six contests between them. Both of these offenses have been much better of late, but Valdez is due for a bounce-back effort, while Gilbert shoved for seven innings of one-run ball the last time he faced Houston.

Pick: Under 8

Moneyline pick

For some reason, Seattle has owned the Astros this season, posting a 6-2 record during the eight games the teams have played (including Friday’s win). Gilbert dominated the ‘Stros earlier this season, too, allowing just three hits in seven frames en route to a win on July 9. Valdez’s lone start against Seattle this year was a no-decision where he allowed two runs on five hits in six frames. The Mariners have all the momentum and the better starting pitcher, so we’ll back them as road ‘dogs here.