Mariners-Mets prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 2

After suffering a rare bullpen meltdown during Friday night’s loss, the Seattle Mariners look to get back on track and keep pace in the wild AL West race in the second game of their three-game set with the New York Mets. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Seattle will send ace Luis Castillo (11-7, 3.01 ERA) to the mound, while New York counters with lefty David Peterson (3-7, 5.23).

The Mariners enter as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +114. The run total is set at 8. Seattle still leads the West after last night’s loss, but they’re just percentage points ahead of the Astros — with the Rangers only a game back.

Mariners-Mets picks: Saturday, September 2

Injury report

Mariners

Day-to-day: SP George Kirby (illness)
Out: C Tom Murphy (thumb), OF Jarred Kelenic (foot)

Mets

Out: OF Starling Marte (groin), 2B Luis Guillorme (calf)

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo vs. David Peterson

If it weren’t for Gerrit Cole, we’d probably be talking about Castillo as the presumptive AL Cy Young frontrunner. The righty has been outstanding just about all year long, and August was no exception: Though he got tagged for seven runs in six innings to open the month, that’s only the second outing in his last 10 in which he’s allowed more than three runs — with a 2.95 ERA and 67 Ks in 64 innings over that span. His changeup hasn’t quite been the elite offering we’re used to, but he hasn’t even needed it of late, in large part thanks to among the best four-seam fastballs in the game (.158 BA against, 33.4% whiff rate).

Thrust back into the rotation after New York traded away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, Peterson dominated the woeful Angels last time out but has been mediocre in his other four starts, with a 7.53 FIP and .950 OPS allowed. When he’s been good in the past, the lefty has dominated with his big, sweeping slider, but he’s giving up a .291 BA and .505 SLG on the pitch this season. He went seven innings in his last start, but he typically only lasts four or five as shaky command (17th-percentile walk rate) runs up his pitch count.

Over/Under pick

With Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez and a host of other dangerous righties in their lineup — Seattle is slashing .319/.405/.531 as a team against lefties since August 1 — there’s a chance they can clear this number all by themselves against Peterson tonight. Castillo is as sturdy as they come on the mound, but if the Mets can contribute even a little bit on the scoreboard, we should hit this very attainable over.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

Seattle has among the best offenses in the game right now with a massive advantage on the mound in this spot, and yet they’re not the prohibitive favorites they probably should be. Maybe that’s recency bias from Peterson’s last start, but either way, the Mariners have the edge just about everywhere you look and need a win to retain their division lead.