Mariners-Rays prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 7

The Seattle Mariners (78-61) will look to continue their hot stretch when they head to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays (85-55) in a huge four-game series starting Thursday. First pitch from Tropicana Field is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Luis Castillo (11-7, 3.19 ERA) gets the start for the Mariners on Thursday night, while Zack LIttell (3-4, 4.69) will go for the Rays.

The Rays enter in firm grasp of the top Wild Card spot in the AL (they have an eight-game lead), while the Mariners hold the second spot — meaning these two would face off in a three-game Wild Card series in Tampa if the season ended today. Seattle enters as -130 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Tampa is a +110 underdog. The run total is set at 8.

Mariners-Rays picks: Thursday, September 7

Injury report

Mariners

Out: OF Jarred Kelenic (left foot fracture), C Tom Murphy (left thumb sprain), 1B Evan White (left groin strain, hip surgery)

Rays

Day-to-day: SS Taylor Walls (groin soreness)
Out: OF Manuel Margot (right elbow loose bodies), RP Jason Adam (left oblique strain),

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo vs. Zack Littell

Castillo is in the midst of another All-Star year, as the 30-year-old leads the American League in hits per nine innings (7.2) and is 17 strikeouts away from tallying his second 200-K season. That said, he’s coming off one of his worst starts of the year, as he allowed five runs in five innings against the Mets last time out. Prior to that, he had been solid in August, tallying a 3.35 ERA in 33 innings.

Another graduate of the Rays’ pitching factory, Littell has become a serviceable back-end starter of late after working as a reliever for all of his career. He’s gone 4-3 with a 4.42 ERA over his last seven starting assignments (38.2 innings) and allowed four runs in 4.2 innings against the Guardians his last time out.

Over/Under pick

This over hit in all of three of these teams’ previous matchups earlier this year, and I don’t see that changing on Thursday. Castillo has been good but not great over the past month, while Littell has allowed at least two runs in each of his last five starts.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

I like the Mariners to pick up a crucial win. The Rays are nowhere near the team they were early in the year, while Seattle has stormed into the postseason picture thanks to a month-long hot streak. I’m backing the trends.