Mariners vs. Mets prediction and odds for Sunday, Sept. 3 (Trust Kirby's Fastball)

The Seattle Mariners got an 8-7 win last night to hold an one-game advantage in the AL West over the Houston Astros at 77-58 and with the schedule getting tougher after they leave Queens, the Mariners need to finish off a series win over the 62-74 New York Mets today.

For the series finale the Mariners will go with George Kirby against Tylor Megill of the Mets. Kirby is 10-8 with a 3.28 ERA in 25 starts while Megill is 7-7 with a 5.29 ERA in 20 starts. 

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Now, let’s get into the odds and I’ll give you my pick. 

Seattle has been on a serious roll lately and they’ll want to keep that going today obviously with one of their aces on the mound. The way Kirby has been pitching, Luis Castillo is no longer the only ace of this Seattle staff. Last time out the Mariners took a loss with Kirby on the mound as he went 5.2 innings and allowed three runs on eight hits with no walks and nine strikeouts. That wasn’t his best outing, but a performance like that should be enough against New York. 

Kirby didn’t issue any free passes last time out and that’s a theme for him. He has a 2.3 walk rate which is 100th percentile. Kirby also has a dominant fastball which is 86th percentile in velocity and has a run value of 16 which is 97th percentile. The Mets aren’t a very good fastball hitting team. Francisco Lindor leads the team with a seven run value and is slugging .533, but 10 of the 17 hitters on their roster have a negative run value against heaters. 

I love Kirby to dominate this matchup and the Mariners offense should be strong against Megill. Megill had a good outing last time, but he has a 6.40 xERA and a .296 xBA which are both in the bottom five percent of all pitchers.

With that big of a mismatch on the mound I love Seattle to win big today. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change