Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

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30 April 2023

Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

It's been a quiet series thus far, with Toronto taking the first two games of this series by 3-2 and 1-0 scorelines. With two more solid pitchers taking the mound on Sunday, our MLB betting picks expect that lack of scoring to continue.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18-9) look for a sweep as they host the Seattle Mariners (11-16) on Sunday afternoon.

Toronto has won two pitching duels this far in the series — a 3-2 win in Game 1 followed by a 1-0 win after 10 innings yesterday in Game 2. Despite all this, Toronto is still tied with Baltimore for second in the AL East.

MLB picks and predictions for the Mariners vs Blue Jays on Sunday, April 30 below.

Mariners vs Blue Jays odds

Mariners vs Blue Jays predictions

The first two games in this series were very low scoring as the Blue Jays and Mariners combined for just six total runs across 19 innings. Despite Sunday not exactly featuring two of the game’s brightest stars on the mound, another low-scoring contest may be in order for Game 3.

Seattle has been very strikeout prone at the plate, posting the second-highest strikeout rate (26.6%) across the last 10 days. Nothing has been going well, as the Mariners’ batting average (.220), OPS (.663), and wRC+ (91) are all a testament to their futility.

Chris Bassitt gets the nod for Toronto. He was roughed up for nine earned runs in his first start as a Blue Jay but has been effective since then, allowing no more than two earned runs in any of his last four starts while allowing a total of 13 hits across 24 2/3 innings.

He has had a bit of trouble issuing free passes, as his 9.9% walk rate is the highest it’s ever been and is well above his 7.5% career mark. He’ll hope to begin normalizing that number against a Seattle lineup that doesn’t draw a ton of walks, ranking just 21st in walk rate (8.3%) across the last 10 days.

Marco Gonzalez will be on the mound for Seattle. Mariners fans should be encouraged with his start to the year, as he’s striking out more batters (strikeout rate up from 13.2% to 19.5% from a year ago) while allowing far less hard contact rate (barrel rate down from 7.2% to 3.2%).

Toronto has been decent against lefties, posting a 103 wRC+ (12th) and .718 OPS (15th). The Blue Jays have really specialized at putting the ball into play, posting a very low 17.9% strikeout rate against southpaws, which is lower than all but two other ballclubs.

The Under has been a good bet when these two teams face each other, cashing in eight of the last 11 meetings. They have combined to go 1-7 O/U in the last eight meetings taking place at the Rogers Centre.

Toronto has been an Under machine in general, posting a 9-16-2 O/U record. The Blue Jays have cashed the Under in five straight home games and are 1-9-1 O/U in their last 11 games following a win. They’re on a remarkable 2-12-2 O/U run across their last 16 games and I will be backing that trend to continue on Sunday.

There are better odds available for the first-five Under at 5 (-102) than the full-game Under 9.5 (-119), so my best bet will be targeting the first five innings only.

My best bet: First-five Under 5 (-102 at SIA)

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Mariners vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

Looking at SIA’s odds, the Mariners are currently +157 after opening at +148 on Saturday.

Seattle has been ice cold on the road, losing four straight away games, and has struggled against right-handed pitching, losing four straight when facing a starter from that side of the mound.

On the flip side, the Mariners have typically performed well in this matchup, going 7-2 across their last nine meetings with Toronto.

The Blue Jays are in the midst of a hot streak, winning six straight games. It’s easy to see why they are the favorite as the betting market sees a team on a winning streak playing at home after winning the first two games of the series.

Toronto typically takes advantage when playing down in competition, posting a 21-7 record in its last 28 games against a team with a losing record.

The Blue Jays are 3-2 in games that Bassitt has started this season while the Mariners are 2-2 when Gonzalez has been on the mound.

Mariners vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

While I am placing my best bet on the first-five Under instead of the full-game Under, I don’t have a strong predilection for one bet or the other. I always look to lay less juice when possible, so that’s why I ended up going with the first five.

This game should be in pretty good hands once it gets to the bullpen. Toronto has a 3.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in relief this year while Seattle’s bullpen has a stellar 3.21 ERA but a slightly concerning 1.29 WHIP.

Toronto’s lineup has been decent but unspectacular lately, ranking 14th in OPS (.737) and ninth in wRC+ (109) across the last 10 days. While those are fine numbers, it’s not enough for me to expect a scoring bonanza when combined with Seattle’s mostly Bottom-5 marks in recent performance.

Bassitt’s 9.9% walk rate and 10.5% barrel rate so far this season are both concerning, but I’m willing to let that slide for now considering he’s performed much better since a terrible opening performance and is facing an ice-cold Mariners lineup.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, is posting encouraging numbers across the board both in the box score and looking at advanced numbers.

Mariners vs Blue Jays game info

Mariners vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Marco Gonzales (2-0, 3.32 ERA): The 31-year-old left-hander has had a strong start to the year, notching his lowest ERA since 2020. His 4.02 xERA and 3.96 FIP both indicate a bit of regression but are solid numbers anyway. His strikeout rate of 19.5% is way up from 13.2% a year ago, but that should normalize a bit considering his swinging strike rate of 8.0% is actually down from 8.3% in 2022.

Chris Bassitt (3-2, 4.82 ERA): Toronto is Bassitt’s third team in as many years. He spent 2021 with the Oakland Athletics and posted a 3.15 ERA, then joined the New York Mets in 2022 and pitched to the tune of a 3.42 ERA. He’s taken a step back thus far, although most of his numbers are to blame on a blowup in his first start in which he surrendered nine earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals.