Blue Jays Vs Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Toronto Blue Jays (18-14) will look to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., currently on a two-game homer streak, versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (20-12) at 6:35 PM ET on Friday, at PNC Park.

The Pirates are an underdog (+121 moneyline odds to win) when they take on the Blue Jays (-142). The matchup has an over/under set at 9 total runs.

The insights in the article below reference odds valid as of May 5, 2023 at 3:16 PM ET. Ready to bet?

Blue Jays vs Pirates Betting Lines

Blue Jays Betting Insights

• The Blue Jays have entered the game as favorites 23 times this season and won 13, or 56.5%, of those games.
• Toronto has a record of 9-5, a 64.3% win rate, when favored by -142 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The Blue Jays have a 58.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Toronto and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 14 of 32 opportunities.
• The Blue Jays have an ATS record of 16-16-0 in 32 games with a spread this season.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Pirates Betting Insights

• The Pirates have come away with 13 wins in the 24 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 8-8 when favored by +121 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 45.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• Pittsburgh’s games have gone over the total in 16 of its 32 opportunities.
• The Pirates have posted a record of 20-12-0 against the spread this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

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Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Chris Bassitt

• When Bassitt starts, his team is 3-3-0 against the spread this season.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed five innings while giving up four earned runs on two hits in a matchup with the Seattle Mariners.
• Bassitt has five starts in a row of five innings or more.
• Bassitt’s team is 1-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
• Bassitt’s team has a 3-3 record in his starts this season.
• Out of Bassitt’s six starts with a total this season, two have hit the over.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Rich Hill

• Hill (3-2) takes the mound first for the Pirates in his seventh start of the season. He’s put together a 4.45 ERA in 32 1/3 innings pitched, with 27 strikeouts.
• In his most recent outing on Saturday against the Washington Nationals, the left-hander went 6 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs while surrendering eight hits.
• Hill will aim to last five or more innings for his fifth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.4 frames per outing.
• The Pirates are 2-2 in Hill’s four starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
• Hill’s team is 4-2 over his six starts.
• Hill’s starts went over the run total two times in six games with a set total this season.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

• The Blue Jays have a 6-3 record in games this season when they hit two or more home runs.
• Toronto has racked up five or more extra-base hits in three games this season, and won each time.
• The club has notched eight or more hits 23 times this season, and has a 15-8 record in those games.
• Toronto has an 11-6 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
• The Blue Jays are 4-3 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Pirates Hitting Trends

• They’ve won all 13 of their games in which they’ve hit two or more home runs this season.
• Pittsburgh has won each of its 10 games this season in which it has connected for five or more extra-base hits.
• In 18 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 14-4.
• In 15 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 13-2.
• They have a 9-3 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+121)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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