Marlins-Brewers prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 11

The Miami Marlins (74-69) and Milwaukee Brewers (79-63) are set to begin a four-game series tonight that will go a long way to sorting out the NL playoff picture. First pitch for this matchup is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (9-8, 3.59 ERA) will step on the hill for the Fish and go up against Brew Crew righty Brandon Woodruff (4-1, 2.30).

Miami is cruising with eight wins in its last 10 outings, and the team is coming off a big series victory over the Phillies this past weekend. They managed to break up a no-hit bid by Phillies starter Ranger Suarez in the seventh inning of yesterday’s ballgame and rallied to win it 5-4. The Marlins are currently sitting just a half game back of the Diamondbacks for the third NL Wild Card spot, so this series will be of great importance for them.

Milwaukee also played well over the weekend, taking two of three off the Yankees in the Bronx. The team outscored New York 17-4 through the first two games of the series before falling in a 4-3 extra-innings setback yesterday. The Brewers still maintain a three-game lead on the Cubs at the top of the NL Central standings.

Milwaukee enters this one as a -142 favorite on the moneyline over at DraftKings Sportsbook, making Miami the +120 underdog. The run total is set at 7.

Marlins-Brewers picks: Monday, September 11

Injury report

Marlins

Day-To-Day: SP Sixto Sanchez (shoulder), RP Andrew Nardi (hand)
Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (forearm), RP Matt Barnes (hip), RP Anthony Bender (elbow), DH Jorge Soler (oblique)

Brewers

Day-To-Day: SP Corbin Burnes (ankle), OF Christian Yelich (back), OF Joey Wiemer (mouth)
Out: SP Julio Teheran (hip), OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder), DH Jesse Winker (back), RP JC Mejia (shoulder), OF Blake Perkins (oblique), SP Adrian Houser (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Jesus Luzardo vs. Brandon Woodruff

Luzardo has recorded three straight quality starts heading into tonight’s contest, and his latest one came against the Dodgers last Tuesday. He went six full innings in the outing, punching out six while yielding just two earned runs in an eventual 6-3 victory for the Marlins. He is sporting a 4.34 ERA with a .273 opponent batting average on the road this season, so he’s hoping to bring those numbers down with another quality start tonight.

Woodruff has gotten the win in two of his last three starts and was dominant in last Tuesday’s victory over the Pirates. He gave up only two hits in seven innings of action and provided enough cover for the Brewers bats to get active throughout the entire evening. He’s only pitched 16.1 innings at home this season but has been fantastic, posting a 1.65 ERA with an opponent batting average of .196.

Over/Under pick

Both starting pitchers have been money as of late and this could be a struggle for both lineups to scrape across runs. That will especially be the case for the Marlins, who will go up against a pitcher in Woodruff who has been a brick wall at home. Take the under for tonight’s series opener.

Pick: Under 7

Moneyline pick

Miami has plenty of momentum on its side, but I’m leaning towards the Brew Crew for tonight’s contest. Milwaukee is back at home and with a quality arm going on the mound, it should be able to maintain its cushion at the top of the NL Central for another night.