Brewers-Rangers prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 18

After taking two of three against the Angels earlier this week, the red-hot Rangers (72-49) look to maintain their grip on the AL West as they welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (65-56) to town in a battle of division leaders. First pitch of Friday’s series opener is set for 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Milwaukee will send ace Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 1.99 ERA) to the hill against Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.17).

Despite a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers this week, the Brewers retain a 2.5-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central as they get set to wrap up this road trip in Texas before heading home to take on the Twins next week. The Rangers got a much-needed boost at the trade deadline and have now won seven of 10, still 2.5 games up on the Astros in the AL West. Texas will head out on the road next week, starting with three games in Arizona against the Diamondbacks.

Texas enters as -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Brewers at +100. The run total is set at 8.

Brewers-Rangers picks: Friday, August 18

Injury report

Brewers

Out: 1B Rowdy Tellez (arm, finger), DH Jesse Winker (back), SP Julio Teheran (hip), SP/RP Aaron Ashby (shoulder), OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder), 1B/DH Darin Ruf (knee)

Rangers

Out: SP Nathan Eovaldi (forearm), 3B Josh Jung (thumb)

Starting pitchers

Brandon Woodruff vs. Andrew Heaney

Woodruff made just two starts before going down with a shoulder injury in April, but the righty has looked more or less like his old self since coming off the IL earlier this month. He struck out nine over five innings of two-run ball against the Pirates in his return, then held the White Sox to two runs on four hits over 6.1 innings this past weekend. The righty’s fastball/changeup combo remains nearly unhittable when he’s on, with both pitches carrying whiff rates over 36%.

After leaving his most recent start after recording just four outs due to illness, it’s unclear how deep Heaney will be able to go into this game on Friday night. The lefty had been stellar in August prior to that setback, firing 11.2 scoreless innings across his first two starts of the month. He’s always been about as boom-or-bust as it gets, capable of double-digit strikeout brilliance or some very crooked numbers depending on whether he has command of his fastball and slider.

Over/Under pick

The Brewers scored a grand total of three runs across a three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers this week, and while Texas’ pitching staff isn’t quite that caliber, Heaney’s shown he can be plenty effective when he’s on. The Rangers’ 4.52 bullpen ERA does raise some red flags if Heaney isn’t able to work more than three or four innings, but Milwaukee has struggled against left-handed pitching all year long, and I trust Woodruff to keep Texas at bay on the other side.

Pick: Under 8

Moneyline pick

Milwaukee enters this matchup with a substantial advantage on the mound and an offense that had been showing signs of improvement prior to their setback in L.A. Woodruff is a bear to deal with, and given all the uncertainty surrounding Heaney right now, I’ll back the righty to carry the Brew Crew to a much-needed series opening win as road ‘dogs on Friday.