Marlins-Mets prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 28

The Miami Marlins (82-76) and New York Mets (72-86) will wrap up their three-game midweek series tonight. First pitch for this NL East showdown is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Flushing, NY. Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.73 ERA) will get the start and go up against Mets lefty David Peterson (3-8, 5.37).

These two teams split yesterday’s doubleheader with New York hammering Miami 11-2 in Game 1 before Miami struck back with a 4-2 victory in Game 2. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor led the scoring barrage for the Mets in the first game of the twin bill, going a combined 6-8 with two homers and six RBI. In the top of the ninth of the second game, Marlins shortstop Xavier Edwards was able to score on an error to break a 2-2 tie before Bryan De La Cruz drove home an extra run for insurance.

Tonight is another critical game for Miami as it is currently tied with Chicago for the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League with four games left in the regular season.

Miami enters this game as a -135 favorite on the moneyline over at DraftKings Sportsbook, making San Francisco the +114 underdog. The run total is set at 7.5.

Marlins-Mets picks: Thursday, September 28

Injury report

Marlins

Day-To-Day: 2B Luis Arraez (ankle)
Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (forearm), SP Eury Perez (back), RP Tanner Scott (paternity), RP Matt Barnes (hip), RP Anthony Bender (elbow)

Out: OF Starling Marte (groin), RP Sean Reid-Foley (lat),

Starting pitchers

Jesus Luzardo vs. David Peterson

Luzardo has been a reliable hand for the Marlins this month and they’ll need him to step up in a critical game like tonight’s matchup. He was a little bit vulnerable against the Brewers last Saturday but limited the damage, giving up three earned runs in five innings of an eventual 5-4 victory for the team. He’s had success against this Mets lineup as they are only hitting .208 off him through 48 career at bats.

Peterson will make his final start of what has been a tough year for him on the mound. The Mets have lost all four games he has started this month, including last Thursday’s matchup against the Phillies where he gave up four earned runs in four full innings of work. He has at least found some success at home this year, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.18 ERA.

Over/Under pick

7.5 is a low total given that this is a starting pitching matchup between a pitcher in Peterson who has struggled all year long and a pitcher in Luzardo who has had his clunkers from time to time. I’ll lean toward the over here.

Pick: Over 7.5

Moneyline pick

The Marlins are in the thick of a Wild Card race that will most likely come down to the last day of the regular season and they can’t afford to mess around with the lowly Mets here. I think they’ll come out extra motivated tonight and hammer Peterson from the opening pitch.