Marlins vs. Braves prediction and odds (Bet on positive regression)

The Miami Marlins have lost three straight games including two of which came at the hands of the Atlanta Braves.

The two teams will face each other in Game 3 of a four-game set on Tuesday night and the Marlins will turn to the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara.

Alcantara has stumbled out of the gates to say the least, sporting a 5.47 ERA through his first four starts. Can he bounce back tonight? I say yes.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the game and then I’ll break down why I think the Marlins are a great underdog bet.

Marlins vs. Braves odds, run line, and total

Marlins vs. Braves prediction and pick

Now is a great point of the MLB season to bet on pitchers who are underperforming and bet against pitchers who are overperforming. Tonight is a great example of that opportunity.

Alcantara has a 5.47 ERA through his first four starts, but I expect him to figure things out sooner rather than later. One sign that positive regression is ahead for Alcantara is his 3.49 FIP (field independent pitching).

Tonight is a good time for him to bounce back as the Braves have struggled against righties this season. Their OPS drops from .905 against lefties down to .741 against righties.

Meanwhile, the opposite is true for Bryce Elder, who sports a flawless 1.14 ERA through his first four starts. He’s going to be a good pitcher for the Braves, but he’s not going to be able to keep up these numbers. That’s especially true when you look at his 2.52 FIP ahead of tonight’s start.

Give me the Marlins to pull off the sizable upset tonight.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.