Marlins vs. Diamondbacks pick: MLB odds, predictions, best bets

If you’ve followed our daily baseball plays this season, you know how much we tend to target games with value on the under, especially early in the season before the market catches up on some of baseball’s best starters.

But when you’re presented with a matchup as juicy as the one in Miami, it’s hard to stay away from a good ol’ fashioned over bet.

Both of Friday’s starting pitchers — Diamondbacks veteran Madison Bumgarner (7.27) and Marlins hurler Trevor Rogers (6.00) — have among the highest ERAs in the majors through the first two weeks.

Neither has been able to generate easy outs, with Bumgarner (15.6 percent) and Rogers (20.9 percent) owning the worst strikeout rates of their careers to this point.

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks pick

(6:40 p.m. Eastern)

For Bumgarner, control has been an issue across the board: he’s walked a whopping 22.2 percent of the batters he’s faced, and a meager 39.9 percent of the pitches he throws are in the strike zone.

That number is even worse for Rogers (33 percent), who’s scored a first-pitch strike on just 51.2 percent of at-bats.

Both pitchers have allowed at least one home run in each of their first two starts, and neither has made it out of the fifth inning.

That’s of particular concern for these bullpens, both of which rank in the bottom 10 in ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching ahead of Friday’s matchup. Let the fireworks show begin.

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction

Over 8.5 total runs (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)