Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks (8-5) and Miami Marlins (6-7) open a 3-game set at loanDepot Park on Friday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Arizona won 5-1 last year

The D-backs had Thursday off after taking 2 of 3 from the Milwaukee Brewers earlier in the week. Arizona has won 5 of its 6 games and 7 of the last 10. Arizona hitters are taking good at-bats as they are the 2nd-hardest team to strike out in the early going. 3B Josh Rojas is white-hot right now. After going 0-for-7 to open the season, he is 14-for-24 (.583) with 6 RBIs.

Miami had the day off Thursday as well after taking the final 2 games of a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. 2B Luis Arraez has been a difference-maker hitting .500 (23-for-46) with 6 extra-base hits and 5 RBIs. He has been dropped from leadoff to 3rd in the order.

Diamondbacks at Marlins projected starters

LHP Madison Bumgarner vs. LHP Trevor Rogers

Bumgarner (0-1, 7.27 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 2.19 WHIP, 10.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 8 2/3 IP.

• Has allowed 10 BB and 9 H in just 8 2/3 to start the season; both starts were against the LA Dodgers
• Last 5 GS vs. Miami (dating back to 2019): 2-0, 1.98 ERA
• Marlins hitters have just a .198 BA with a .236 wOBA in 122 plate appearances against him

Rogers (0-2, 6.00 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 9 IP.

• Had 2 pretty similar starts against the New York Mets to begin the season, allowing 3 ER in under 5 IP
• The D-backs roughed him up for 5 ER on 6 H and 2 BB while fanning 4 in 4 1/3 IP in 1 GS last year

Diamondbacks at Marlins odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.

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Diamondbacks at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Diamondbacks 3

With Arizona coming off a cozy 7-game homestand, I’m going to side with the Marlins here. I believe they have the better pitcher on the mound despite the early rough results. Miami is just 3-4 at home to start the year so there’s no chance I’m taking them at -165.

Instead, head to BetMGM’s Win/Total section and take MARLINS AND OVER 5.5 RUNS (-105).

The Marlins are just 5-8 on the RL and 2-5 at home. You’re going to have to give me something better than +125 to take that leap.

How about a One Game Parlay?

MARLINS ML + OVER 5.5 TOTAL RUNS + ROGERS 4 K’S comes out to +140. And I’d rather risk my money there. Rogers has 4+ K’s in 6 of his last 7 GS and both career starts against Arizona.

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You can pass here since we’re getting creative and adding some risk with the above wagers. I like the Under, but the juice is on the Over. Both teams are 5-4-1 O/U. The Under is 6-0 in MadBum’s last 6 road starts with a total between 9.0-10.5. The wind is also blowing in at 9 mph. I’ll take the UNDER 9 (-105) or PASS.

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