Marlins vs Mets Picks & Odds (July 10)

Happy Sandy Alcantara day baseball fans. The Marlins ace, and arguably the best pitcher in baseball, will take the mound for Miami on Sunday as his team closes out a four-game series with the Mets.

This will be Alcantara’s third start against New York in the last three weeks and oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.

Marlins vs Mets Odds

Odds as of July 9th at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo code. 

The Mets opened up as a -125 moneyline favorite, in a game with a total of 7.5. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York, with clear skies and 79 degree game-time temperatures in the forecast.

Miami vs New York Starting Pitchers

Alcantara enters play having pitched at least seven innings in 11 straight starts. That’s the longest such streak in eight years, and his endurance is a big part of what makes him great.

He’s pitched 12 more innings than anyone in baseball, and has faced 28 more batters. Despite the heavy workload, he leads the NL in WAR, and ranks second in ERA and WHIP.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about the 26-year-old though, is the fact that his velocity actually increases as the game goes on. His fastball averages 97.6 miles per hour the first time through the order, but that number increases to 97.9 mph by the time he goes through a lineup for the third time.

The NL Cy Young odds leader has faced the Mets twice already this season, yielding seven runs over 15 innings, while posting a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate.

Alcantara vs Walker

New York, a top-four contender in the World Series odds, will counter with Taijuan Walker. He’s in the midst of an impressive season of his own, and is on pace for career bests in WAR, ERA and WHIP.

Walker has won four straight decisions, including back-to-back outings against Miami. He’s held the Marlins to four runs total over 12.2 innings this season, while striking out 14.

Marlins vs Mets Betting Analysis

Miami has never been an offense to fear this season and its lineup enters Sunday in a funk. They’re averaging only three runs per game over their past seven outings, while batting just .209 during that stretch. They’ve struck out an average of nine times per game over the past week, and rank below league average in runs per game, slugging and OPS.

New York’s lineup meanwhile, has found life after an awful June. They’re averaging over five runs per game during the past week, posting a slash line of .267/.331/.462.

Pete Alonso, a top-two contender in the NL MVP odds, leads the NL in RBI and ranks second in home runs, but like most Mets has been awful against Alcantara. He’s 4-for-24 lifetime against the Marlins ace, with seven strikeouts.

MIA vs NYM Last 10 Meetings

Marlins vs Mets Pick

Miami’s offensive struggles and Alcantara on the mound are the perfect recipe for this game to go under. Seven of Alcantara’s past nine starts have produced seven runs or less, while nine of the Marlins past 12 contests overall have failed to clear the total.

Also working in favor of a low scoring game is the fact that Citi Field is one of the 11 most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, and Walker is pitching better than he has during his entire career.

Sharp bettors are clearly on the under already as evident by the -120 juice, so if you’re inclined to place a wager act quickly before the odds get worse.