Marlins vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Game 2 of NL Wild Card (Fade Aaron Nola)

The Miami Marlins dropped Game 1 of the NL Wild Card against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night, but if you tailed my best bet for that game, you came out a winner. 

I picked the UNDER 7.5 runs in Game 1, and Phillies ace Zack Wheeler delivered with 6.2 innings of one-run ball, punching out eight Marlins in the process. 

That puts Miami’s backs against the wall in Game 2, as the team needs to win to force a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday. 

Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies in this matchup, and he has not fared well against Miami this season, allowing at least four earned runs in each of his three starts against them. 

The Marlins counter with another young lefty in Braxton Garrett after Jesus Luzardo lasted just four innings in Game 1. 

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I predicted on Monday’s episode of The Baseball Insiders that Nola would struggle in this Game 2 matchup, and I’m not wavering off of that now. 

This season, Nola has an 0-2 record and 6.75 ERA in 16.0 innings of work against the Marlins. Miami is hitting .333 against the former All-Star, and I think it can get to him again tonight. 

While the Marlins didn’t exactly have the bats going in Game 1, they also didn’t get blown out either. The team was able to hold the Phillies to just one run after Luzardo exited, a solid showing from a below-average bullpen this season. 

Garrett allowed three earned runs in five innings in his lone start against the Phils this season, which ended in a 9-8 win for Miami. It was one of the 33 times this season that the Marlins won a one-run game. 

Miami was 21-10 in the 31 games that Garrett appeared in, so I don’t mind taking the team to upset Nola and company and force Game 3. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.