Marlins vs. Phillies prediction: Best Bet for Wildcard Game 2 (Oct. 4)

The Philadelphia Phillies look to ride their momentum from a sound 4-1 Wild Card series opening victory into Wednesday’s Game 2 against the Miami Marlins.

Game 2′s pitching battle will pivot to Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA) against Miami’s Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA).

The Phillies are primed for another barrel of runs on Wednesday, and the Marlins look to match them.

Marlins vs. Phillies prediction: Analysis

If anything was evident in Tuesday’s game, it was that the Phillies’ offensive depth was too overpowering for the Marlins to keep pace with.

There were 9 of 10 Philadelphia batters that recorded a hit. And with Luis Arraez not having a highlight-reel night, the Marlins lacked the potency at the plate.

They did get three hits plus their only run from Josh Bell, but that’s just it. This is a lineup that doesn’t evenly generate enough runs between one another as they were ranked No. 20 in wRC+ at 94.

There are capable hitters on this Marlins lineup as all but one player in their starting lineup bats .247 or better. Miami was just good enough at Citizens Bank Park with an on base plus slugging of .747.

The Phillies were No. 10 at 105 in wRC+. Even despite the points of this season where the Phillies were off their game, run generation was never an issue.

Nola had a relatively inconsistent season. There were a handful of starts where he pitched seven innings of excellence and those where he was yanked in the fifth. The offense has been kind to him as his xERA sits up at 3.74.

The Marlins knocked him around this year. Nola was 0-2 in three starts and carried a 6.75 ERA. If he falters against the Fish, the Phillies could always pivot to their well-rested and reliable bullpen. But at that point, I’m still expecting the Phillies to put up enough runs to counter.

Braxton Garrett also hit some rocks in the road with an xERA trending up to 4.51. His last outing was in a crucial start against the down-and-out Mets when the Marlins were vying for a berth and he let up two home runs and four earned runs in four innings.

Philadelphia can pound the ball with a hard hit rate of 40.8 percent and a 10th ranked average exit velocity of 88.9 mph. Garrett is subpar in allowing high contact owning a .327 xwOBA.

Given a dangerous lineup of Phillies bats against a Marlins lineup greater than the sum of its parts with room for error in the starting pitching here, the eight-run total reflects value on the over.

Marlins vs. Phillies pick

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