Maryland football: Predictive model picks week one game between the Terps and Towson

While the official betting lines for Maryland vs. Towson will be one of the last to be released due to the FCS vs. FBS nature, one analytical model has already released its prediction.

According to ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ week one picks, Maryland is a 35.6-point favorite over the in-state Tigers. SP+ gives the Terps a 98% chance to win with a projected rounded score of 41-5.

Connelly defines SP+ as “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking...” In his final preseason ratings, the Terps rank No. 41 nationally – No. 47 in offensive SP+ and No. 27 in defensive SP+ – with a projected 7.4-4.6 record. Towson does not have an SP+ ranking because it is an FCS team.

Towson, led by new head coach Pete Shinnick, has never beaten the Terps. Maryland is 2-0 all-time against the Tigers, winning 28-3 in 2011 and 63-17 in 2017. It will be the first time that Mike Locksley, a former Towson defensive back, faces his alma mater as Maryland’s head coach; Locksley was New Mexico’s head coach in 2011 and Alabama’s co-offensive coordinator in 2017.

“It's a really unique situation,” Locksley said at Big Ten media day. “A place that has given me so much. The game of football has provided an opportunity for me to change the lineage of my family. Growing up in a tough area of D.C., playing at Towson. And that four years, five years I spent at Towson really have shaped and molded me into the man I've become today. And the coaches that helped me along the way, I find myself at times mimicking some of those great coaches. And so to be able to play my alma mater, with their new coach that just came in, for an opening game is something that I'm excited about.”

The actual spread should resemble a number similar to Connelly’s, though it would not be surprising if it is higher. The Terps have beaten up on FCS teams in the Locksley era. Maryland crushed nearby Howard 79-0 in 2019 and 62-0 in 2021.

Kickoff between Maryland and Towson is set for 3:30 p.m. Saturday on Big Ten Network.