Mavericks vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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25 November 2023

Mavericks vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With Dallas' offense clicking on all cylinders and Los Angeles remaining a work in progress, Rory Breasail believes the Mavs possess a significant advantage heading into tonight's showdown. Read more in our Mavericks vs. Clippers betting picks.

True rivalries are a rarity in the modern NBA, but there’s no denying that Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks have something brewing with the Los Angeles Clippers.

Ever since their iconic playoff series war in 2021, Kawhi Leonard and Luka have continuously tried to one-up each other. NBA odds have this one as a dead heat, and the Clippers are searching desperately for a W as they sit at just 6-8 after last night’s loss.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Clippers believe Dallas has the edge on Saturday, November 25.

Mavericks vs Clippers odds

Mavericks vs Clippers predictions

In a line often misattributed to Aristotle but whose true origin is unclear, someone once said “Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom.”. Sun Tzu made a similar observation in The Art of War: to defeat the enemy, knowledge of your own strengths and weaknesses is the foundation on which you must build your strategy.

Whatever else you might say about them, nobody would accuse this year’s Dallas Mavericks of trying to be anything but what they are. They are a team built to win games with their offense, not their defense, and if the opposing squad manages to go tit-for-tat until clutch time, they have two all-time great scorers to carry them over the finish line.

Even Jason Kidd came out publicly and said that Dallas’ best defense is their offense right now.

He’s quite literally right.

The Mavericks have the third-best offensive rating in the NBA at 120.5, and unlike the other elite offenses, they’re just as good in the halfcourt as they are in transition.

That speaks to just how good they are at creating when the game bogs down, and Luka Doncic is the ultimate skeleton key when an opposing defense starts to lock things up.

Of course, the key ingredient is their 3-point shooting. Dallas has the second-highest frequency of 3-point attempts, just narrowly behind the league-leading Celtics.

That includes the highest rate of corner threes, which is a tribute to Doncic’s best-in-class drive and kick game. He’s a master of drawing help and throwing bullets from impossible angles right into the shooting pocket of whoever is spotted up.

Ironically, Luka’s game is in many ways most similar to that of prime James Harden, due to the way they both dominate the ball. Luka leads the NBA in usage rate, and while that might not be everyone’s cup of tea stylistically, he’s incredibly effective.

One of the benefits of being an isolation-focused team is that Dallas almost never turns the ball over. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Mavs own the lowest turnover rate of any team, which limits opposing transition attacks. It’s one way they can tilt the possession game in their favor despite not being a good rebounding team.

The Los Angeles Clippers have immense talent of their own, but they do not have the same self-knowledge. They’re a team still figuring out rotations, where guys like to shoot, who takes over in crunch time, and who takes a back seat. The final form of the Clippers might well be a team that threatens in the playoffs, but that potential remains a pipe dream for now.

The Clippers are also on a back-to-back, having lost to the Pelicans last night in a competitive game in which they nearly pulled off a 21-point comeback. A loss like that is physically and mentally draining, and I think the older vets on L.A. will struggle against Dallas’ well-oiled offensive machine on the second leg of a back-to-back.

My best bet: Mavericks -1 (-110 at DraftKings)

Mavericks vs Clippers same-game parlay

Mavericks -1

Luka Doncic Over 30.5 points

Under 237.5

Doncic seems to love playing the Clippers. His career 33 points per game average against L.A. isn’t just elite, it’s historic. That consistent level of production by a player against a single team has only been matched or exceeded by Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.

Luka gets up for these games every time, and the current version of the Clippers has fewer wings to throw at him following the departures of Nic Batum and Robert Covington.

This total is also astronomically high, but that’s not why I like the Under. It opened at five points lower than 237.5 before moving, and I can’t turn down the chance to bet against the line movement when it’s that extreme without an obvious cause.

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Mavericks vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis

Dallas opened between -1 and -1.5 point favorites over the Clippers for Saturday, which seems slight to me.

The Clippers are just 5-9 against the spread this season, and they did most of that damage prior to acquiring Harden. They also played last night and took a physical beating from Zion Williamson, who was relentlessly attacking them in the paint.

I trust a fresh Mavericks team that knows what they want to do on any given possession way more than L.A. The Clippers might have more talent on paper, but the games aren’t played that way. Dallas is also 6-3 ATS on the road in their last nine.

As mentioned in my SGP, the total for this contest has seen significant movement. While opening at 232.5, that has jumped five points at the time of writing and sits at 237.5. It’s rare to see a total move quite that much without confirmation of a major injury or absence.

One of the reasons I lean toward the Under is that the Clippers aren’t set up well to exploit Dallas’ weaknesses. Opponents score more efficiently at the rim against Dallas than any other team, and the Clippers are a team that rarely attacks in the paint.

Will L.A. prioritize a more physical style of play and attack the basket coming off a hard-fought loss last night? With a team full of aging stars, it seems unlikely.

Dallas does get beat up on the boards a lot and that will likely be compounded by Derrick Lively’s absence. If the Clippers do work on the offensive glass, they could do enough to threaten the Over, but I am skeptical.