Mavericks vs. Heat Predictions, Picks & Odds: Low-scoring Miami Matchup has Big Playoff Implications

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01 April 2023

Mavericks vs. Heat Predictions, Picks & Odds: Low-scoring Miami Matchup has Big Playoff Implications

Can the Dallas Mavericks get back on track, or will the Miami Heat bring the fire at home? Read on for our top Mavericks vs. Heat prediction based on the best NBA odds.

Some of the NBA’s worst teams are resting players and turning out an ugly product, but the season's final two weeks still feature some highly entertaining matchups with big playoff implications. The West is bunched up so tightly the No. 11 seed Dallas Mavericks are just 3.5 games out of the No. 5 seed. After losing five of six, Dallas is set on simply making the play-in tournament, and needs to overtake the Oklahoma City Thunder (half a game up) to do so.

In the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat are two games behind the Brooklyn Nets for the No. 6 seed and a ticket out of the play-in tournament. A win for either team would be huge for their postseason aspirations.

Here is our best Mavericks vs. Heat prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Heat prediction

Mavericks-Heat Under 224.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Yesterday’s New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers pick was the Under, and Cleveland gave up 130 points at home - only their second time all season. Don't be discouraged by that result, and go back to the well for another Under tonight. Dallas’ offense improved slightly since point guard Kyrie Irving joined the team, but the Mavs have struggled recently.

Over the last 10 games, Dallas is 23rd in points per game at 112.5, while Miami is 26th at 111.2. In that span, the teams combined to average 223.7 points. Over the last five, only the Portland Trail Blazers - a team missing four starters - scored fewer PPG than the Heat (104.6).

This season, the Heat average the fewest PPG of any team at just 108.7. They’re scoring less than the San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons. Dallas ranks 16th in scoring (113.8) but 20th on the road (112.4).

Can Dallas get back on track offensively tonight? Doing so at Miami-Dade Arena is a tall order, given the Heat’s stifling defense. Miami allows the second-fewest PPG overall (109.8) and the sixth-fewest at home (109.9). The point total is modest at 223.5, but take the Under. Miami is 4-4 to the Over with a total of 223.5 or higher at home, and Dallas is 10-13 with a similar road total.

Mavericks vs. Heat best odds

DraftKings (-110)

We’d have no problem betting this one at 223.5, but there’s no way we’re not taking the extra point if it comes with the same odds. Both Caesars and DraftKings offer this one at 224.5 for the same -110 odds, so make your bet there.

WynnBet's 224 total is also more attractive than the 223.5 FanDuel and PointsBet offer, but the extra half a point at DK or Caesars guarantees you'll win this wager if the total hits 224 rather than simply pushing if you place it at WynnBet.

Mavericks vs. Heat odds

Mavericks vs. Heat odds analysis

Miami opened as small 1.5-point favorites, and the line moved by half a point in favor of the visitors. This is trending toward a Pick ‘Em, as both teams struggled to win or cover lately. The Mavs lost five of six and sport a 3-3 record ATS in that span. Dallas is just 6-19-2 against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Miami has a dreadful 12-25-2 ATS home record, and the team covered and won in just two of the last six. Bettors prefer Dallas, with 58% of wagers on the Mavs to cover.

The point total rose by as much as a point from its 223.5 opening. Despite these two teams’ recent offensive woes, bettors laid 60% of wagers on the Over. The Heat are 20-15 to the Over at home, but the team hit the Under in four of its last six overall. Dallas is 17-22 to the Over on the road, and the team hit the Under in four straight and six of its last seven. These teams hit the Under when they met earlier this season, combining for 205 points in Dallas.