Men's Olympic Basketball Odds & Favorites 2024

sportsbookreview.com

06 October 2023

Men's Olympic Basketball Odds & Favorites 2024

Teams are starting to build their rosters for the 2024 Paris Olympics, and we're examining the odds to win the gold medal at the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament through our best sports betting apps.

The 2023 FIBA World Cup has come and gone, and Germany pulled off a shocker by defeating Serbia to win the gold medal and claim the title of world champion. Whether that honor belongs to the Denver Nuggets or not, I'll leave that debate to everyone else because I can't bet on the debate; I can only focus on who will win the Olympics and the NBA Finals.

Despite winning the gold medal at the World Cup, Germany and Dennis Schroder, the MVP of the tournament, open with +800 odds to win the gold medal at the Olympics. Those are just the fifth-best odds on the board.

If Germany isn't the favorite to win once again, then who are the favorites, and why are their odds much shorter than Germany's?

Men's Olympic Basketball odds 2024

(odds as of Oct. 5)

Men's Olympic Basketball betting analysis

I wasn't able to include Serbia in any of the sections below, so I'm taking this opportunity to talk about the silver medalists at the FIBA World Cup. When you see Serbia's odds trading at +400 to win the gold medal at the Olympics, I think there is an assumption being made that Nikola Jokic will play, despite not participating in the World Cup.

I would advise proceeding with caution here, as Jokic has been very vocal about not enjoying the length of the NBA season when the Denver Nuggets won the NBA Finals. If the Nuggets make another deep playoff run, which they likely will, I'm not so sure Jokic would play for Serbia at the Olympics. That would render these +400 odds for Serbia worthless.

Men's Olympic Basketball odds movement

The odds to win the Men's Olympic Basketball tournament have just been posted, so we haven't seen much movement yet. However, I do expect them to follow a similar pattern to what we saw in the FIBA World Cup odds.

If you want to beat any line movement, it's all about tracking the rosters and seeing who has committed to play for each country. Whenever an All-NBA player commits to a certain country, you can expect that announcement to be felt in the market within a matter of hours or days, depending on the player.

Men's Olympic Basketball odds 2024: Favorite

USA (-250)

USA basketball may have missed out on winning a medal at the FIBA World Cup, but its bronze medal loss to Canada has lit a fire under this program. Rumors circulated after the FIBA World Cup that LeBron James was working to assemble the Avengers for the 2024 Paris Olympics, aiming for one last shot at securing a gold medal and restoring USA's basketball dominance.

Kevin Durant has already expressed his desire to play for the USA, and Joel Embiid, although eligible to represent France, has committed to the USA team after discussions with Grant Hill. Additionally, players like Stephen Curry and Devin Booker have shown interest in joining the ranks of those donning the Red, White, and Blue.

USA basketball always has a difficult time sending its best roster to international competitions, but that doesn't appear to be an issue for the 2024 Olympics. Injuries and deep playoff runs could still alter the lineup, but the USA looks poised to send one of the best teams it has ever assembled, and it's a significant reason why the Americans are favored at -250.

Men's Olympic Basketball odds 2024: Contender

Canada (+500)

The 2023 FIBA World Cup marked Canada's breakthrough on the international stage, showcasing its potential for years to come. Canada secured the bronze medal, introducing the world to the remarkable talent of First Team All-NBA player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Gilgeous-Alexander wasn't the sole NBA player on Canada's roster; he was joined by Dillon Brooks, RJ Barrett, Lu Dort, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Canada enters as one of the top contenders on the oddsboard to win the gold medal at the Olympics, not only due to its success at the FIBA World Cup but also because of the potential for significant improvement to its roster for the Olympics. The NBA talent that represented Canada at the FIBA World Cup isn't the only pool from which Canada can choose players to build its Olympic roster.

Canada could potentially add Jamal Murray, Andrew Wiggins, Shaedon Sharpe, Bennedict Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard, among others, for the 2024 Paris Olympics. This depth is a significant factor in why Canada is trading at +500 to win the gold medal.

Men's Olympic Basketball odds 2024: Long shot

Lithuania (+2500)

I'll reiterate what I said during the FIBA World Cup: this isn't the best tournament in which to look for long shots, primarily because of the significant talent gap between teams like USA, Canada, and Serbia when compared to some of the long shots trading at +10000 (like Latvia). Does +2500 qualify as a long shot? Not in my opinion, but we should aim to stay somewhat realistic here.

Lithuania has a team that consistently challenges a powerhouse like the USA, as it demonstrated once again by defeating the Americans in the FIBA World Cup. The reason I believe Lithuania qualifies as a realistic long shot option is that, apart from boasting one of the most passionate fan bases in the world, it has the potential to make a significant addition to its roster for the Olympics – Sacramento Kings forward Domantas Sabonis.

Sabonis didn't play for Lithuania during the FIBA World Cup, but if he commits to the Olympics, it would give Lithuania a formidable frontcourt pairing with Sabonis and Jonas Valančiūnas, capable of matching up against any opponent they face. Combine that frontcourt with a group of sharpshooters, and Lithuania becomes a serious dark horse team.

Men's Olympic Basketball odds 2024: Fade

Slovenia (+2000)

Luka Doncic is undeniably one of the best basketball players in the world, and for this reason, I believe Slovenia tends to receive more attention in the betting markets thanit deserves. While Doncic is more than capable of leading Slovenia further in the tournament than expected, when it comes to winning the gold medal, he simply lacks the supporting cast required to make it happen.

The likelihood of Slovenia achieving multiple upsets to secure the gold medal is honestly quite slim. However, if it happens to get a favorable draw, it could certainly pull off an upset or two to reach the semifinals or even win a bronze medal. But when it comes to the gold, Doncic lacks the necessary support to justify investing in the +2000 odds for Slovenia.