Canada vs. Serbia Predictions, Picks & Odds: FIBA World Cup

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06 September 2023

Canada vs. Serbia Predictions, Picks & Odds: FIBA World Cup

Our top Canada vs. Serbia prediction based on the best FIBA World Cup odds assesses whether it'll be Canada or Serbia advancing to Sunday's championship in what is sure to be one of the best games of the tournament.

The pressure is off for Serbia and Canada, as both teams have advanced to the 2024 Paris Olympics by making it to the semifinals of the FIBA World Cup. Canada had already qualified for the Olympics following its victory over Spain in the second phase of the tournament, and there were questions about whether the Canadians would experience a letdown in their quarterfinal matchup with Slovenia. That wasn't the case, as they eliminated Slovenia and Luka Doncic with a commanding 100-89 victory.

Canada wasn't the only team that won its quarterfinal matchup in blowout fashion; Serbia eliminated Lithuania by a score of 87-68, just one game after Lithuania beat the USA in the second phase of the tournament.

In terms of efficiency, the top two players remaining in this tournament will be featured in this semifinal matchup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Canada and Bogdan Bogdanovic of Serbia.

Are we rolling with SGA and Canada, or are we taking the points with Bogdanovic and Serbia?

Here is our best Canada vs. Serbia prediction for Friday's FIBA World Cup matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pickconfidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canada vs. Serbia prediction: FIBAWorld Cup

Serbia +5.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The hype train for Canada at the FIBA World Cup is very real, and it isn't slowing down after its quarterfinal win over Slovenia. As someone with a +2000 futures bet on Canada winning the FIBA World Cup, I'd love to say 'smash Canada on the spread in this spot,' but with Serbia available at +5.5 (-105) via BetMGM, I think Serbia is the better side in this game.

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Similar to when Canada played Spain, Serbia represents a disciplined team that plays the FIBA game really well. It is going to run its offensive sets, play team basketball, and it has had an extra day to prepare for Canada. If Canada isn't communicating on defense and switching properly on cutters in the lane, Serbia will burn its opposition.

Serbia may not have Nikola Jokic, who sat out the FIBA World Cup, but there is plenty of talent still on this roster. NBA players such as Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nikola Jovic are on the wings, but the two players who might cause even more problems for Canada are point guard Stefan Jovic and big man Nikola Milutinov.

Both Stefan Jovic and Milutinov are veterans who have played a lot of FIBA basketball, and these are always the types of players that cause problems for NBA players at this stage of an international competition. Milutinov is a true post player on offense, who is going to make Dwight Powell or Kelly Olynyk defend him on the low block.

Canada has the much stronger NBA talent in this matchup with Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett, but I just think 5.5 points is too much for Canada to be giving Serbia.

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Canada vs. Serbia best odds

The best odds for betting on Serbia on the spread can be found at BetMGM, which is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering Serbia at +5.5. We would need to find Serbia at +114 or longer on the spread of +4.5 in order to consider betting on the +4.5. You can see this isn't even close to happening, as BetRivers and DraftKings both have Serbia trading at one less point with more juice.

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Canada vs. Serbia odds analysis

All of our best sports betting apps opened Canada as a 4.5-point favorite, except for BetMGM, which opened Canada as a 5.5-point favorite. I think we will see BetMGM and all of our other best sports betting sites meet in the middle here at Canada -5.

The total for this semifinal matchup between Canada and Serbia opened at 174.5, a couple of points lower than where we saw Canada's total trade against Slovenia at 176.5.