Canada vs Serbia Predictions & Odds

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08 October 2023

Despite two clunkers earlier in the tournament, RJ Barrett has been solid during this World Cup run and showed up in a big way against Slovenia last time out. His services will be needed against Serbia and our betting preview expects him to deliver.

And then there were four. The FIBA World Cup semifinals are upon us, and while Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray won’t be suiting up on Friday, their two national teams — Serbia and Canada — will be dueling for the right to play for gold.

Though Lithuania proved too much for Team USA, Serbia manhandled Lithuania in turn, felling the Baltic nation with a combination of skill and tenacity that made them a clear threat to win the whole tournament. Canada, for their part, gradually wore down and frustrated Luka Doncic and Slovenia on their way to a comfortable victory.

Now both are on the precipice of a potential showdown with either Germany or Team USA in the World Cup Final.

Our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for Serbia vs. Canada expect RJ Barrett to play bully ball against Serbia’s interior defenders.

Canada vs Serbia odds

Canada vs Serbia picks and predictions

Canada has already achieved half their goal coming into the tournament by qualifying for the Paris Olympics next summer. Perhaps nobody on the team was more pleased about that fact than RJ Barrett, whose dad Rowan Barrett was a member of Canada’s last Olympic berth in 2000.

RJ’s tournament performance has been something of a roller coaster ride. While his averages are respectable — he’s Canada’s second-leading scorer with 14.7 points on a dead even 50% effective field goal percentage — he’s been wildly up and down. He had two complete clunkers against Brazil (zero points) and France (five points) that have overshadowed a string of otherwise good-to-great performances.

In those four other games, RJ scored 17, 22, 16, and 24 points, respectively, with his best outing coming against Slovenia when he was most desperately needed. Barrett scored 24 points as he routinely bullied Luka Doncic in the halfcourt. He was one of the key reasons for Doncic’s growing frustration that eventually saw the Slovenian superstar ejected.

RJ always finds his greatest success against teams without great rim protection. Serbia’s strengths on defense are largely similar to Canada’s in that they have imposing perimeter size but a weaker interior presence.

Those are the kinds of matchups that Barrett thrives against because he’s incredibly strong for a 6-foot-6 player. RJ is also an underrated cutter and getting him attacking on the move in the halfcourt has been one of the keys to maximizing his success in prior games.

But ultimately, this is mostly a numbers game. Barrett has cleared this mark handily in four of the six World Cup games so far, and his averages have been held down by a game where he faced an elite rim protector in Rudy Gobert and another where Brazil intentionally slowed the game to a crawl.

Serbia plays an up-and-down style that should emphasize Barrett’s strengths, so I expect him to be a key to Canada’s offense on Friday.

My best bet: RJ Barrett Over 14.5 points (-125 at BetRivers)

Canada vs Serbia same-game parlay

RJ Barrett Over 15.5 points (+100)

Bogdan Bogdanovic Under 19.5 points (-125)

Serbia +5.5 (-120)

On top of taking the Over on RJ’s scoring prop, I’m once again backing Canada’s defense to lock down the opposing team’s best player and calling for a Serbia cover at +5.5.

It’s Atlanta Hawks shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic who leads the charge for Serbia, scoring 18.8 points per game on 65.6% from 2-point range, but Canada’s perimeter defense continues to meet any challenge thrown at them.

They wore down Luka as expected, and while Bogdanovic is a different kind of challenge, he’s one that Dillon Brooks is just as well suited for.

As for why I think Serbia should keep things close, it’s down to their style of play. Serbia’s ability to beat teams with the pass could be an issue for Canada. Spain gave Canada real issues with the same ability, and Serbia combines that with youth, size, and shooting on the wing.

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Canada vs Serbia spread and Over/Under analysis

Friday’s semifinal tilt between Serbia and Canada is expected to be competitive, with Canada opening as 4.5-point favorites. That line has seen minor movement since, climbing as high as -5.5 at some sportsbooks.

Canada’s defense looked impressive against Slovenia as they largely ran a switch-everything scheme and lived with the result. That allowed Luka to get going 1-on-1 against some of Canada’s weaker defenders quite a bit, but that same scheme should prove even more effective against Serbia.

Serbia doesn’t have a singular dominant force to match Doncic, but they are a much better overall team.

They’re the only team to rival Spain in terms of ball movement, ranking second behind them in assists per game and with far fewer turnovers. Their 2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio leads the field by a mile. Canada’s ability to switch and defend on a string will be crucial to defending them.

They’re a whirlwind of passing and off-ball cutting. Serbia have been the most efficient team in the tournament, scoring on a stunning 55% of their field goal attempts. They’re the most efficient team in the World Cup because they work tirelessly to create high-quality layups. As Canada is lacking a true rim-protecting big, that could prove devastating.

Serbia also has an enormous group of players, a combination of big guards and wings capable of hanging with Canada to a degree that nobody else in the tournament save Team USA could hope to do so.

Still, Canada has elite defensive personnel and the best player in the tournament in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They’re rightly the favorites here, but I believe this will be a hotly-contested game.

The total for Friday’s has grown two points, rising from 174.5 to 176.5. This figures to be a high-scoring affair, as these teams share similar strengths and weaknesses in some regards.

Both live to attack the paint and they also both lack elite rim protection. The line moving two points makes me hesitant to bet this number, particularly because Canada still has options.

When Canada has needed a defensive boost throughout the tournament, they’ve gone small, eschewing the need for either Kelly Olynyk or Dwight Powell at the center spot and playing Brooks and Dort at the four and the five. If they do so for large stretches of this game, they could stymy some of Serbia’s attacks in the paint and slow the scoring pace significantly.