Mets' Complete Guide, Preview for 2nd Half of 2023 MLB Season
Simply put, the 2023 New York Mets have been a disappointment.
With back-to-back offseason spending sprees, a record-setting payroll and a roster loaded with household names, expectations were sky-high entering the season.
Now they find themselves contemplating selling at the trade deadline after entering the All-Star break with a 42-48 record, a whopping 18.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings.
Ahead, we've provided a preview for the second half of the season, complete with potential X-factors, a trade deadline outlook and a blueprint for this Mets team to reach the postseason.
Starling Marte
In the first season of a four-year, $78 million deal last year, Marte was one of the Mets best offensive players, posting a 133 OPS+ with 45 extra-base hits and 3.8 WAR while earning his second career All-Star selection. This season, he is hitting a punchless .256/.309/.336 for a 79 OPS+ and he has been a minus-0.3 WAR player in 82 games. Getting him on track as a table-setter for the offense would go a long way.
Brett Baty
With Eduardo Escobar traded to the Los Angeles Angels, Baty now has a clear runway to prove he can be the everyday guy at third base with a strong second half. The 23-year-old is hitting .244/.315/.354 with five home runs and 21 RBI in 234 plate appearances so far this year for a lackluster 86 OPS+, but his stellar track record of production in the minors suggests bigger things are coming.
Carlos Carrasco
If the Mets do decide to sell, a few strong starts from Carrasco coming out of the break could make him one of the easier pieces on the roster to move, and if they don't sell his performance will also be key in the starting rotation. The 36-year-old has a 5.16 ERA in 61 innings on the year, but he closed out the first half with eight shutout innings of three-hit ball on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He will be a free agent at season's end.
The next few weeks will go a long way in determining whether the Mets are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
If they buy, the focus could be on players who are controllable beyond the 2023 season, whether it's a starter like Corbin Burnes (MIL), a reliever like Scott Barlow (KC) or a hitter like Brent Rooker (OAK).
With Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor locked into the middle infield spots, they could build an attractive trade package around shortstop prospect Ronny Mauricio.
If they sell, reliever David Robertson and outfielder Tommy Pham will be the easiest pieces to flip, as both are productive rentals on reasonable salaries. Carlos Carrasco is also a rental arm, while Mark Canha and Brooks Raley have club options for next season with a combined $3.25 million worth of buyouts.
The trade deadline X-factor could be Max Scherzer, who has a $43.3 million player option for next season. If the Mets want to take a step toward resetting the payroll, flipping him would be a big first step, and his wealth of experience would make him a huge pickup for any contender, though the uncertainty of next year's contract situation complicates things.
A lot is going to have to go right for the Mets to flip the script.
With a minus-three run differential and a 28-28 record against teams with a winning record, it's not simply a matter of reversing some bad luck. This team just hasn't been very good so far this year.
Catching the Atlanta Braves in the NL East race is not going to happen, but a seven-game deficit with five teams to overtake to move into the third NL wild-card spot is not completely inconceivable.
It's tough to justify any flashy additions at the deadline, so it will be up to the in-house talent to right the ship, perhaps with a few smaller scale secondary pickups to add some depth to the roster.
It all starts with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander living up to the fact that they are the highest-paid players in baseball. If they can pitch like the co-aces they were supposed to be, it takes a lot of pressure off the rest of the roster.
Big picture, their current postseason odds sit at 14.8 percent, according to FanGraphs. The road ahead is straight uphill.
