Mets vs. Diamondbacks Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: New York gets World Series futures boost thanks to unbeaten July

Last week, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, who signs the checks for the biggest payroll in MLB history, said that while he still had faith in his disappointing team, he was prepared to be a seller at the trade deadline if the Mets didn't turn their hugely disappointing season around. That sell-off is on hold for now, as New York has won four straight games and can complete an impressive series sweep at NL West-leading Arizona on Thursday, but the Diamondbacks are -130 favorites.

New York won 101 games last year and was priced -500 this spring at BetMGM to play extra baseball for a second year in a row, but is now +500 with a 40-46 record. The team sits 6.5 games out of the National League's final wild card spot – the Mets aren't catching the Braves in the NL East.

The book has moved the Mets' odds to win their first World Series since 1986 from +10000 to +8000 with a 4-0 July, however. New York is averaging 5.5 runs per game this month and allowing 2.8. In June, the team was 7-19 and averaged 4.4 runs scored and  4.8 runs allowed per game. New York's season-high winning streak is five, set twice. The Mets were down to their final strike Wednesday, trailing 1-0, but rallied for a 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks.

Rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez homered to tie it with two outs in the ninth, and Mark Canha eventually followed with a go-ahead RBI triple. Earlier this season, Alvarez hit a game-tying, three-run homer against the Rays with two outs in the ninth. He's now the third Mets rookie to hit multiple game-tying homers in the ninth inning or later, joining Pete Alonso (three in 2019) and Tim Harkness (twice in 1963).

Alvarez leads the majors with five game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the sixth inning or later. He'd be an NL Rookie of the Year candidate in many other seasons, but is a +7500 longshot at DraftKings. Arizona's Corbin Carroll is -550, and you can get the rest of the field combined at +360.

Wednesday's win improved the Mets to only 16-35 when the opposing team scores first, as opposed to a 24-11 record when New York draws first blood.

It's Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 5.94 ERA) on the hill Thursday for the Mets, who have lost the past five times he's started. Carrasco pitched to a 6.23 ERA last month. He is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 career innings against the Diamondbacks. Carroll has never seen him. Ketel Marte is 3-for-7 off Carrasco.

Arizona's three-game skid has cut its lead atop the NL West to 1.5 games over the Dodgers. The DBacks haven't been swept in a series this year – or been shut out (only team not to be). It's not clear if they will have Marte (.248, 15 HR, 44 RBI) tonight. He hasn't started the first two games of the series but did pinch-hit Wednesday. Manager Torey Lovullo said postgame that the Marte was on track to start in Thursday's finale.

Rookie Ryne Nelson (5-4, 4.67 ERA) will start for Arizona. He has been terrific in back-to-back starts, allowing one run and going at least seven in each – although those were both on the road. He is 2-3 with a 7.09 ERA at home. He has never faced the Mets. 

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