Mets-Orioles prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, August 5

The New York Mets take on the Baltimore Orioles in the second game of a three-game series on Saturday, August 5. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Camden Yards. Tylor Megill (6-4, 5.17 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, while Kyle Gibson (10-6, 4.53) will pitch for the Orioles.

Baltimore is the -175 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with New York coming in at +145. The total is set at 9.5.

Mets-Orioles picks: Saturday, August 5

Injury report

Mets

Day-to-day: OF Brandon Nimmo (quad), OF Starling Marte (migraines)
Out: 2B Luis Guillorme (calf)

Orioles

Out: OF Cedric Mullins (groin), OF Aaron Hicks (hamstring)

Starting pitchers

Tyler Megill vs. Kyle Gibson

Recalled from Triple-A after the trades of both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, Megill will get another chance to prove himself in the Mets’ rotation after getting off to a rough start this year. The righty has done decently at home, but he struggles in road starts. In his latest road outing, he let up four earned runs in 2.1 innings against the Astros. Before that, he conceded seven earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Pirates.

Gibson had a decent July and ended the month on a positive note. In his most recent start, he allowed one run and recorded five strikeouts in six innings against the Blue Jays. However, he has struggled more at home than on the road. In his last two home starts, he has added up 10 innings on the mound. In that timeframe, he allowed 11 runs and recorded just six strikeouts.

Over/Under pick

Megill isn’t good on the road, and Gibson isn’t good at home, which is a match made in heaven for over bettors today. Both of these pitchers are in their weak spots, and we can expect to see some runs early on in this matchup. The over should easily hit today. Yesterday’s total was 13.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

The Orioles won yesterday’s game, 10-3, and I see them winning again today. If their bats were that hot yesterday, Megill doesn’t stand a chance of making it past about three innings before getting pulled in today’s game. The Mets should be able to get some run support off Gibson, but he’s not nearly as much of a liability as his counterpart.