Mets vs Brewers Prediction, Picks, Odds

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06 April 2023

The Mets were shell-shocked by the Brewers in Milwaukee's home opener, losing 10-0. But the pieces are in place for a bounce-back effort, as our MLB betting picks outline.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers (3-1) have turned things around in a big way since their Opening Day loss, having rattled off three wins in a row. That included yesterday's 10-0 whooping of the New York Mets (3-2), who convincingly won a four-game set against the Marlins to start their season.

Can the Mets bounce back after yesterday's poor showing, or will the Brewers keep their foot on the gas and string together a fourth straight win?

MLB picks and predictions for the Mets vs Brewers matchup on Tuesday, April 4.

Mets vs Brewers odds

Mets vs Brewers predictions

After a 4-0 loss on Opening Day, the Brewers have outscored their opponents 22-6 in the three games since. That included Monday's 10-0 win over the Mets in the opening game of a three-game set in which 23-year-old rookie Brice Turang unloaded a grand slam for his first major league home run.

The second baseman represents a wealth of young and budding talent the Brewers possess that includes fellow rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer, who has been equally impressive at the plate (.300 AVG, .364 OBP) as he has been in the field. Fellow rookie Garrett Mitchell chipped in two runs in yesterday's win, a day removed from his 2-for-5 performance in which he posted a triple and two RBIs.

And this all goes without including the likes of Jackson Chourio (eighth-ranked prospect according to MLB.com) and Sal Frelick (30th ranked prospect), who have yet to make it to the majors — but that is for another time.

Turang, Wiemer, and the rest of the Brewers will have the distinct challenge of facing off against three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. The 38-year-old joined the Mets last year and posted a 2.29 ERA and a 0.908 WHIP across 23 starts while notching a 10.7 K/9 mark. In short: Scherzer still has the juice.

In his first start of the season, he gave up just four hits and two walks across six innings, striking out six Marlins and allowing just three runs en route to a 5-3 win for the Mets. And while the Brewers have a lot of fresh faces, they do still have some veterans that Scherzer has notched a rather large sample against.

In 118 plate appearances against these Brewers hitters, Scherzer has notched a 33.6% strikeout rate and a stellar 5.6% walk rate. Christian Yelich notably has a .294 batting average in 36 plate appearances against Scherzer, but it's no secret that the now 31-year-old has not been able to replicate his MVP form in three seasons now.

Outside of Yelich, there aren't any current Brewers that have found success against Scherzer — at least not ones expected to be in tonight's lineup.

My best bet: Mets moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)

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Mets vs Brewers moneyline analysis

Unlike Scherzer, Wade Miley — who will make his first appearance of the season tonight — has not had an easy time against this opponent over 102 plate appearances. Francisco Lindor (.385 AVG, .615 SLG), Pete Alonso (3-for-6 with a home run), and Starling Marte (.409 BA in a team-high 24 plate appearances) have all had varying levels of success against Miley.

As a whole, his collective .274 batting average allowed against these bats is a mark he hasn't allowed in a season since 2017. And in the Mets' last outing against a lefty, they touched up Trevor Rogers for four runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Tommy Pham went 3-for-4 with a home run and three RBIs, and has had success against Miley in the past (.273 AVG in 11 plate appearances).

Returning to Scherzer, he has been a particularly reliable arm in the early goings of the MLB season. Even in the later stages of his career, Scherzer has improved his career ERA in the month of April in every season since 2016 outside of one.

Mets vs Brewers Over/Under analysis

With rain in the area, American Family Field will likely have its roof closed tonight. The consensus total is 8, and with an expected high-end performance coming from Scherzer, it may be wise to side with the Under.

The Brewers are not the type of team to sustain high-end run production for an extended period of time. In the fifteen games they played last year after scoring a combined 15 or more runs in the two games prior (they have scored 19 combined in their last two heading into tonight), they scored more than three runs just six times, with two of those instances coming against the Reds (a team they notably beat up on).

Both teams have had good relief performances thus far, with Milwaukee's bullpen posting a 2.13 ERA, and the Mets' relief corps posting a 3.06 ERA despite the five earned runs surrendered yesterday by Tommy Hunter in his two innings of work.

Mets vs Brewers game info

Mets vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Max Scherzer (1-0, 4.50 ERA): Scherzer is an eight-time All-Star and a three-time Cy Young winner, and is in his second season with the Mets. Last year, in his age 37 season, he pitched to a 2.29 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP while striking out 173 batters over 145.1 innings.

Wade Miley (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Miley has been a much better pitcher in recent years than his career 4.13 ERA would suggest. In 2021, he posted a 3.37 ERA across 28 starts in his final season with the Reds. He then joined the Cubs in 2022 and posted a 3.16 ERA in limited appearances. He has returned to the Brewers for 2023, a team he posted a career-best 2.57 ERA with in 2018.