Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds

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13 April 2023

Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Brewers have cooled off a bit, but the Padres haven't had as much punch at the plate as you'd expect. The road side could still have the edge here, and our MLB picks see value in backing them Thursday night.

The Milwaukee Brewers (8-4) have finally dropped their first series of the year after a 7-3 loss yesterday to the Diamondbacks. They begin a west-coast road trip on Thursday night with a four-game set against the San Diego Padres (7-6), who are off to a lukewarm start and are coming off a series loss of their own.

Which of these two hopeful National League contenders will set the tone in the opening game of their series?

MLB picks and predictions for the Brewers vs. Padres matchup on Thursday, April 13th.

Brewers vs Padres odds

Brewers vs Padres predictions

After a blazing six-game winning streak during which they averaged seven runs per game, the Brewers have since come back to Earth. They have lost three of their last five, scoring just three runs across those three losses. Granted, they scored 13 runs across the two wins during that time, but that massive disparity and lack of offensive consistency is a theme all too common for Brewers fans.

On Thursday night, they’ll have a chance to get the bats going when they face off against Nick Martinez, who has struggled through his first two starts. He’s already allowed eight earned runs in just under 12 innings of work (6.17 ERA) and has struggled to keep the bases clean (1.46 WHIP). And this comes after last season, in which he pitched to a career-best 3.46 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in his first year with San Diego.

As for tonight, it’s a relatively fresh matchup. The current Brewers roster has accumulated just 15 combined plate appearances against Martinez and the only notable performance is Christian Yelich's 3-for-7, with all three hits being singles.

On the flip side, the Brewers haven’t named a starter for Thursday's contest as of 2:30 pm ET. Whoever ends up taking the mount and/or shouldering the bulk of tonight's work may have their work cut out for them, given San Diego's struggles thus far.

The Padres rank 21st in runs per game (4.31) and there aren't many metrics that would indicate they have been on the wrong side of luck. They rank 19th in on-base percentage, 15th in slugging, and 17th in wRC+. They do walk at the sixth-highest rate on the year, but they have failed to make consistent contact with the ball (26th in batting average on balls in play).

And assuming the Brewers lean on a heavy complement of relief arms tonight, that element of the matchup also works against the Padres, given that Milwaukee's relief ERA of 1.37 leads the majors. The Padres have a league-average bullpen, but Martinez has been able to go 100+ pitches in each of his first two outings and the pen may play a smaller-than-usual role tonight.

Given the lack of uncertainty with who will take the mound for the Brewers combined with the struggles coming from Martinez and the Padres' offense, it’s best as of now to just side with the plus-money proposition.

My best bet: Brewers moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)

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Brewers vs Padres moneyline analysis

While the Brewers may have had lopsided offensive performances this year, their season-long metrics, as a whole, are rather encouraging (albeit in an obviously small sample). They rank fifth in getting on base and are just above league average in slugging (13th).

They do strike out a lot (seventh-highest) but they also walk at the fifth-highest rate. Tying it all together, their team-level wRC+ of 107 is good for ninth as of today and generally points in an upward direction in terms of generating positive plate appearances.

Leading the charge is rookie Garrett Mitchell, whose .316 batting average to start the season has been a pleasant surprise. He’s incredibly active with his bat at the plate, possessing a team-low 7.3% walk rate while maintaining the second-highest strikeout rate of any player with over 20 plate appearances, trailing just Yelich, who continues to be a shell of his MVP form.

On the Padres' side, there have been some troubling starts to the season. Many were expecting a bounce-back season from Juan Soto after posting just a .241 batting average and scoring just 93 runs and driving in just 62 more across 153 games last year. He has just a .217 average to his name, but he does continue to get on base at a respectable rate (.368).

Jake Cronenworth has also had difficulties out the gate, accruing just a .214 batting average after signing a seven-year extension at the top of the month.

Brewers vs Padres Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 9, with the Over slightly favored with the juice, and since then it has seen a small flip towards the Under.

Milwaukee has gone 7-5 to the Under, tied for the third-highest rate of Unders on the young season. It went Over the total in yesterday's game but had gone Under in the previous five.

Last year, the Brewers played to a 39-30-6 record favoring the Over following a loss, the third-best rate. This year, they have gone 3-0 to the Under in that split.

The Padres have gone 7-6 to the Under this year. Like the Brewers, they have also gone to the Under in five of their last six.

The weather tonight may lend its hand to the Over, with the humidity projected to reach as high as 80%. There’s also expected to be an 8 mph wind blowing to dead center, but is not likely to play anywhere near as big of a role as the humidity.

Brewers vs Padres game info

Brewers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Milwaukee - TBD

Nick Martinez (0-1, 6.17 ERA): Martinez is in his sixth season and in his second with the Padres. He began his career with the Rangers, pitching to a 4.77 ERA and 1.45 WHIP from 2014-2017. He then spent three years in Japan before re-emerging with the Padres two offseasons ago, signing a surprising three-year deal with $26 million guaranteed. He then pitched to career-best marks in ERA and WHIP.