Mets vs. Marlins prediction: This Over trend will continue

The Mets are slated to start Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 4.07 ERA) on Saturday in Miami, while the Marlins’ plans to counter with Trevor Rogers fell through Friday when the lefty was placed on the 15-day injured list with lower back spasms.

A new starter had not been named as of late Friday night. Whoever the Marlins trot out will be forced to reckon with a hot Mets lineup that has won four straight while averaging 5.8 runs.

Carrasco has been a machine in July, allowing 24 hits and just three runs over 22¹/₃ innings with the Mets going 4-0 in those starts. The Mets also won both of Carrasco’s previous starts versus the Marlins this season.

Betting on Baseball?

Carrasco is pitching well, but current Marlins hitters have had success against him, batting .292 in 119 plate appearances. In the two previous meetings this season, Miami scored a total of five runs, but recorded 15 hits, with both games going over the total.

The Over is 8-3-2 in Carrasco’s last 13 starts, and I like that trend to continue on Saturday.