Mexico Open betting guide: 7 picks our expert loves this week

Golf

25 April 2023

Mexico Open betting guide: 7 picks our expert loves this week

The Mexico Open at Vidanta, formerly known as the Mexican Open, dates back to 1944, but this is just the second year that it has been a part of the PGA Tour schedule. Jon Rahm won it last year on the same course we’ll see this week: Vidanta Vallarta, a resort property situated less than a mile from the coast between Nuevo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Rahm’s four-day tally was 17 under par.

Vidanta is a Greg Norman design and, like Norman’s coastal course, El Camaleon at Riviera Maya, where they played the World Wide Technologies Championship at Mayakoba, Vidanta features paspalum grass, a spongy, sticky type of grass somewhat similar to poa annua. The difference is that Vidanta is 400-yards longer than El Camaleon.

Unlike El Camaleon, Driving Accuracy is not a factor at Vidanta. At 7,456 yards, and playing to a par 71, it caters to bombers.. The fairways are especially wide with very little rough. It is noteworthy for our handicap this week that at last year’s Mexico Open, seven of the Top 10 finishers ranked in the Top 16 in the field for Driving Distance that week.

The golf course runs along the Ameca River, and water comes into play on 14 holes. The greens are undulated and well-guarded by sand bunkers. Given the coastal location, players should expect to face strong afternoon winds. Last year, later-day gusts were upwards of 30 miles per hour. It is also interesting to note, and a factor in the handicap, that over 40 percent of the approach shots on this lengthy track last year came from 200+ yards out.

As far as correlated golf courses, this week I took into account results players had at the Corales Puntacana Championship, Sanderson Farms (Country Club of Jackson) and at Torrey Pines, where they hold the Farmers Insurance Open.

Only three of the Top 50 players in the OWGR are here this week. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is back to defend his title. World No. 16 Tony Finau is here for a second straight season and then it is all the way down to World No. 50, where we find Alex Noren. As for star power, it is the thinnest field of the season so far. Next week will change as we head to Charlotte, N.C., for the Wells Fargo Championship — but it is understandable that many of the big names opted out of the extra travel this week. From the comfort of our weekly column however, we’ll gladly take a stab at wagers.

So, a long, wide coastal design by Norman, with water, jungle, native grasses, sand and wind. Who best fits the bill?

To Win the Mexico Open Outright (and to Finish Top 20)

It was a tough pill to swallow last week when we had the teams of Wyndham Clark/Beau Hossler and Sungjae Im/Keith Mitchell sitting in 1st and 2nd place heading into Sunday’s final round in New Orleans — only to come away empty-handed. Well, not entirely, as we did hit all three of our selections for a Top-20 finish and won our head-to-head matchup as well.

Wyndham Clark (20-1)

We are going back to the well with Clark this week. He is definitely a bomber, ranking 11th on Tour in Driving Distance. He is 8th in this field for such over the last 36 rounds, 28th in SG Off the Tee and second in SG Approach. He’s also played well at the correlated courses, finishing 6th not long ago at Corales. He has a 17th place finish at Sanderson Farms and has three times finished inside the Top 40 at Torrey Pines. Clark is quietly having an excellent season, with five Top-10 finishes, including three Top-6 finishes in his last four starts. He nearly got his first PGA Tour win last week — maybe this week he converts.

Will Gordon (66-1)

Gordon also has strong results on the correlated courses and has finished as high as 21st at Torrey Pines. He, too, bangs it off the tee, ranking 9th in this field over the last 36 rounds in Driving Distance and 14th in SG Off the Tee. Gordon is also 16th over the last 36 rounds in Proximity to the Hole from 200+ yards out.

Luke List (66-1)

The bomber theme continues with List, who over the last 36 rounds is second in this field for SG Off the Tee, 6th for Driving Distance and 6th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. He has an 8th place finish at Corales, a 17th and a second at Sanderson Farms, and a win last year at Torrey Pines, where he has performed well on multiple occasions, including a 25th-place showing in his title defense this year.

Joseph Bramlett (70-1)

Bramlett comes off of a respectable finish in New Orleans last week, tying for 26th after teaming up to put together three of the four rounds in the 60s. Over the last 36 rounds, he is 12th in this field for SG Approach, 20th in Driving Distance and 28th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards out. In his career, he has Top-15 finishes at both Corales and Torrey Pines.

Lanto Griffin (135-1)

Griffin would be the shortest knocker of our selections but still gets it out there well above Tour average and ranks 43rd in this field over the last 36 rounds for SG Off the Tee. He’s 21st in SG Approach and 29th in Birdies or Better Gained. He has an 11th place finish at Sanderson Farms and has done really well at Torrey Pines with finishes of 7th, 12th and 30th in his career. He also recently finished 15th at another Norman Course, TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. 135-1 is a big number for a guy that ranks pretty high in this watered-down field. I’ve seen the number on Griffin to win this week as low as 66-1.

Wyndham Clark (+165) over Tony Finau

Byeong Hun An (+100) over Beau Hossler