Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Preview, and Odds
A playoff rematch is hitting Fiserv Forum on Monday night when the Miami Heat (1-2; 1-2-0 ATS) return to the site where they advanced in the first round. As always, the Milwaukee Bucks (1-0; 0-1-0 ATS) will host in their home building. The first meeting between these clubs is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The Heat have no issues winning here, while the Bucks should be seeking payback. Who will come out on top of this early-season Eastern Conference matchup?
*Published before Milwaukee's Sunday game
This is not an easy time of the year to beat the books. If you are looking for quality NBA Free Picks, you have found the right place.
Miami's Meek Start
Last season's Miami Heat endured a rocky regular season before winning the Eastern Conference. It's early, but Miami's 16-point loss in Minnesota has left some already pondering if history will repeat itself this season. Monday's mission, which should include Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, and Caleb Marin unlike Saturday's, is to win again. Those three should help an offense that's 28th in effective field goal percentage (47.8%) a lot. Their inefficiencies stem from the heaviest volume of midrange attempts (37.7%) and only hitting 31.7% (28th) of them. The Heat are only shooting 56.8% at the rim (24th). Miami's 38.7% mark from deep is top 10 right now, but their volume is bottom 10. A slow pace also helps them limit turnovers with the best teams league-wide. Shot selection will dictate a lot of things for this year's Heat team, for better or worse.
Now, the defense being mediocre through three games is probably more shocking for this club. They're forcing misses at a decent rate, but one of the NBA's worst defensive rebounding rates is giving opponents multiple opportunities. That has been the greatest difference from last year's team which was incredible at grabbing boards. Of course, it has only been three games, so it isn't a troubling trend yet. Miami isn't getting a ton of blocks either, but there are ways around that. What they're excelling in is keeping foes off the free throw line. It helps that their opponents have only hit 66.7% of their free throws too. Miami's defense hasn't dominated yet, but a stronger presence in the paint will make them formidable moving forward.
Free Daily NFL Lock Pick, Monday October 30th: Las Vegas vs Detroit 8:15pmETCLICK TO SEE PICK NOW
Bucks Revenge Game
Even if this is the second half of a back-to-back for the Bucks, this will be the game that they desperately want. Milwaukee won game one against Philadelphia, played Atlanta on Sunday, and can avenge last season's early postseason exit in this one. Khris Middleton did not suit up on Sunday night so he should be active for this game, a massive boost for Milwaukee's offense. Yet, the story will be Damian Lillard, who dropped 39 in his Bucks debut last Thursday. Lillard was rumored to only want a trade to the Heat during the offseason. He led the team in last Thursday's one-point win, while Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 23 points and 12 boards. This was written before game two concluded, so Milwaukee's 50.6% shooting night (36.7% from three) is the only impression the team has given this season. That performance included 36 free throw attempts. With two of the world's best players in the same lineup, the Bucks will find ways to score on almost every night.
Now Milwaukee's defense allowed 117 points in that game. That included Philadelphia shooting 51.2% from the floor, 45.7% from three, and attempting 28 free throws. This year's Bucks appear to be missing Jrue Holiday (traded away in the deal for Lillard) early on. If there are positives to draw from that game, Milwaukee was strong on the defensive glass and only allowed 25% of the 76ers' shot attempts to come at the rim. However, allowing a 61.3% effective field goal percentage is going to make winning difficult. Time will tell if this defense, under new head coach Adrian Griffin, is capable of playing at a championship-caliber level.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Rating:
This isn't just another game for Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and all of the players from last year's team want payback for a first-round exit as the Eastern Conference's top seed. Damian Lillard will want to show the Heat that they should've paid whatever price the Portland front office wanted for his services. The fans want Miami to hear their anguish.
Milwaukee's new offense, based on one game, should pose problems for a Miami defense that isn't finishing possessions. The Bucks have enough firepower without factoring in extra possessions. On the other side of the ball, the Heat's over-reliance on midrange shots will get them into more trouble. Expect the Bucks to control this game.
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Rating:
Seven consecutive meetings between these teams finished over the total, and based on what they've shown this season, Monday's game should be an eighth. Milwaukee plays at a high tempo and is struggling to force misses. They also get to the free throw line often, while game one saw the Bucks give up a lot of free throw attempts too.
As for Miami, they've been merely decent at forcing misses after three games. The Heat also allow a lot of second-chance scoring opportunities, which burns them. Offensively, Miami's 38.7% accuracy (8th) from beyond the arc will help them put points on the scoreboard. Don't be surprised when this is another high-scoring game, even if it's also physical.
Prediction: Over 223.5
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
