Michigan State vs Ohio State Odds, Picks, Predictions

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11 March 2023

Michigan State vs Ohio State Odds, Picks, Predictions

Michigan State has already taken down Ohio State this year, but a much different Buckeyes team will take the court this afternoon. Our college basketball picks expect OSU to put up a fight the Spartans won't forget.

Ohio State Buckeyes’ backers are not dreaming just yet, but they are starting to think about it. OSU is on the type of hot streak that was expected from it in the preseason. If the Buckeyes can keep it alive today, then those preseason dreams may resurface. Standing in their way — the same team that handed them their last loss — the Michigan State Spartans.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Ohio State vs Michigan State on March 10.

Michigan State vs Ohio State best odds

Michigan State vs Ohio State picks and predictions

This handicapper tries very hard to stick to the traditional writing tenet of avoiding first-person usage. Hence a sentence with the subject “this handicapper.” Today, that rule must be broken. In order to convey some sincerity, I must refer to myself.

I want to bet on Ohio State this afternoon. In fact, I already know I will. In the dark of night, the moneyline is available as high as +152, and rolling over Thursday’s profit from a +164 bet could yield a total payout of +250.

And then there is the 100-to-1 NCAA championship ticket in my lockbox, a delightful thing to think about anew. Writing up every Big Ten game through this weekend will also be easier if this Buckeyes’ run can continue.

They have leaned on four freshmen to now cover five straight games. Aside from the first three minutes of the Wisconsin game on Wednesday, Ohio State has been handily on track to cover the spread for every minute through two games of this Big Ten tournament. The same can be said for two of the three games preceding this week in Chicago, the games that started this ATS heater.

Freshman wing Brice Sensabaugh is controlling games in a way that is simply fun to watch and could be exceedingly applicable to an Elite Eight run next week if the Buckeyes can somehow pull off three more wins this weekend. Ohio State pushing forward would be the kind of March verve that everyone can enjoy, aside from other Big Ten fans, if haters can just get past the brand name.

But suggesting that as a best bet today is tough when the spread is only +3.5. Tough, but then again, it is a logical number. Michigan State was favored by seven against the Buckeyes in the regular-season finale, winning by six. Whether you want to give home-court advantage the traditional three points or the 3.6 preferred by Ken Pomeroy when discussing the Spartans, a subsequent spread of 3.5 on a neutral court fits.

Hmmmm, am I going to give in here and suggest a bet on the Buckeyes? Yes, yes I am, but with measurable reason.

Excluding a loss against Iowa — the worst 3-point defense in the Big Ten — Ohio State shot 22.6% from deep on 17.7 threes per game in six games from Jan. 28 to Feb. 26. Right about then, the Buckeyes changed up their lineup, finally finding a combination that worked after junior center Zed Key was lost for the year with a shoulder injury.

Now leaning on a rotation featuring four freshmen and three seniors, Ohio State is clicking. In its last four games, it has shot 41.4% from deep on 17.5 threes per game.That stretch includes Thursday’s win against Iowa, but that game actually lowered these numbers for a change.

Other aspects have changed for the Buckeyes in the last three weeks since Key was injured at Iowa on Feb. 16. In 14 conference games before then, Ohio State averaged 9.36 assists. In eight games since — including that loss to the Hawkeyes — the Buckeyes have averaged 11.5 assists. Similarly, they turn over the ball 1.25 fewer times per game these days.

Ohio State’s offense has drastically improved from being arguably the most inefficient in the Big Ten. It took far too long for four freshmen and two new veteran transfers to mesh around fifth-year wing Justice Sueing, but they finally have.

This spread would have better fit this matchup before the Buckeyes gelled. Now, it is a touch too high. Prudence forbids recommending the moneyline, but as long as this spread sits at +3.0 or higher, enjoy it.

My best bet: Ohio State +4 (-110 at Caesars)

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Michigan State vs Ohio State spread analysis

Some books have this posted at +3.5 in Friday’s earliest hours, and if this number coallesces at +4.0, it will be because of doubt in the Buckeyes’ legs, gearing up to play their third game in three days.

The Big Ten schedule may have done Ohio State a favor. While a second game tipping off within 24 hours and third within 44 hours is a recipe for worry, the greater hurdle was Thursday’s contest. The Buckeyes took the court against Iowa just some 18 hours after finishing beating Wisconsin. Now, they will have not only a full 24 hours but also a full night’s sleep.

Playing an afternoon game on Thursday should have allowed Ohio State time for decompression and treatment before getting legitimate sleep. Playing back-to-back primetime games can be harder on the body, cutting into the sleep cycle to compound the quick turnaround.

This Buckeyes’ ride may not make it to the weekend, but their legs shouldn't be the reason why.

Michigan State vs Ohio State Over/Under analysis

A total of 138.5 will be tested by Ohio State’s improved shooting, for starters. But that will not be all.

Michigan State’s defense was only middling this season. Pomeroy considered it the No. 8 most efficient in the Big Ten, and its worst feature was its rate of allowing free throws. The Spartans gave up 17.8 free throws per game, second-most in the Big Ten.

Ohio State made 75.0% of its free throws in conference play, ready to capitalize on that Michigan State weakness.

On top of that, the Spartans led the Big Ten by making 78.5% of their free throws. Regardless of who is ahead in the closing moments, they should hit their freebies to seal the win, those artificial points boosting odds of clearing the total.