Michigan State vs Ohio State Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

Despite losing 10 of their last 11 games, the Ohio State Buckeyes are slated as home favorites against a tournament-caliber Michigan State squad. However, our college basketball betting picks are targeting the Under — find out why below.

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The free fall has continued for the Ohio State Buckeyes, but they'll look to finally turn things around on Super Bowl Sunday as they take on the Michigan State Spartans in a Big Ten showdown as a nice appetizer to the Big Game.

Michigan State is coming off a big home win over Maryland on Tuesday and they now sit at 15-9 overall and 7-6 in conference play. Ohio State has now lost five consecutive games and 10 of their last 11. The Buckeyes are now 11-13 overall and 3-10 inside the Big Ten.

Will the Buckeyes play spoiler to the Spartans’ NCAA tournament hopes? Read our college basketball betting picks for Michigan State vs. Ohio State below to find out. 

Michigan State vs Ohio State best odds

Michigan State vs Ohio State picks and predictions

Michigan State is currently in a safe position for the NCAA tournament as they are a No. 8 seed in the current ESPN bracketology and have a NET ranking of 40.

However, a loss at Ohio State could hurt their chances given how bad the Buckeyes have been over the last two months. The Spartans will need their defense to avoid disaster.

Ohio State has just completely fallen apart since the turn of the New Year. After being ranked 24th in the nation on January 2, the Buckeyes have lost 10 of 11 with their lone win coming at home to Iowa. In those 10 losses, Ohio State never surpassed 73 points and scored less than 70 points eight times.

The Spartans love to slow the game down and let their defense win the game for them. They rank 288th in the nation in possessions per game at 67.9. Because of this, the Spartans only allow 65.6 points per contest, which ranks 64th in the country. They also rank 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Ohio State’s recent defensive struggles have mostly been centered around allowing their opponents to hit open 3-pointers. The good news for the Buckeyes here is that Michigan State does not typically shoot many threes. They only make 6.9 3-pointers per game, which ranks 238th in the nation.

Offensively, Ohio State also plays pretty slow. They rank 205th in the country with 69.6 possessions per contest. They also only average 6.7 made 3-pointers per game (265th). Neither team is great at forcing turnovers as the Buckeyes force 11.3 per game and the Spartans forcing 9.7 per contest. 

With both teams having to force offense in the half-court against stingy defenses, it's unlikely this game sees a ton of points. It'd be pretty surprising if either team reached 70 points here so the Under is a fantastic play at a relatively high number. 

My best bet: Under 138.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Michigan State vs Ohio State spread analysis

As bad as Ohio State has been of late, it is still 8-4 at home on the season. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 3-5 on the road with four consecutive losses. It will truly be desperation mode for the Buckeyes, as they not only can play spoiler but can still have an outside shot of making the tournament with several wins in a row to end the season.

The game is likely to be low-scoring, which means the game should be close down the stretch. This will give the Buckeyes crowd a chance to push Ohio State past the finish line in a close game. They have not had a one-possession game at home since early January. 

The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings and the favorite is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two programs. That bodes well for Ohio State tonight. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

I do not love this spread with one of the coldest teams in the country being favored against an NCAA tournament-caliber opponent. However, the game is going to be tight and home-court advantage will likely be enough to push Ohio State to a much-needed win. 

Michigan State vs Ohio State Over/Under analysis

Both teams are close to even on totals this season. Ohio State is 13-11 in favor of Overs and Michigan State is 13-11 in favor of Unders.

Michigan State games average 133.7 total points and Ohio State games average 143 total points. However, most of the Buckeyes' recent games have been much more low-scoring.

The Under is 5-2 in the Spartans' last seven games overall. Two of the past three matchups between these two programs have gone Under the total. With so few possessions and so few turnovers leading to fast breaks, I like these trends to continue.

Neither team likes to shoot 3-pointers and neither team is likely to turn the ball over very much. The combination of few possessions, few fast breaks, and few 3-pointers just scream Under all day long. I would be surprised if this game even got to 130 total points.

Michigan State vs Ohio State betting trend to know

The Spartans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a losing straight up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Ohio State.