Michigan vs. Iowa Player Props
The Big Ten title game figures to be low-scoring, yet our college football betting picks have identified a pair of playable Overs in the Michigan vs. Iowa player props. But topping Phil Naessens' card is a bearish bet on Blake Corum.
The No. 2 ranked Michigan Wolverines are heavy favorites in the college football odds to win their third consecutive Big Ten title when they face No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Wolverines are the only undefeated team in the Big Ten and beat Ohio State 30-24 for the right to play 10-2 Iowa. The Hawkeyes have won four straight and would love to beat heavily-favored Michigan and win the Big Ten title.
Please join me as I share my three top college football player prop picks for Michigan vs. Iowa on Saturday, December 2. And don't forget to check out Andrew Caley's full-game preview of Michigan vs. Iowa!
Michigan vs. Iowa player props for Big Ten Championship
Picks made on December 1 at 12:55 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Michigan vs. Iowa player props
Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the best in the nation. He’s one of the Top 10 contenders in the Heisman Trophy odds, and many consider the senior running back the heart and soul of the Wolverines' offense.
Corum scampered for 1,455 yards last season before his 2022 campaign ended with an ACL injury. He returned for his senior year, and despite playing in every Michigan game, his attempts and yardage are down, but he’s recorded a career-best 22 TDs.
As a result, Corum has exceeded this rushing prop number in only four of his previous 12 games. He rushed for 88 yards against Ohio State and 145 yards against Penn State, but Iowa boasts the best rushing defense nationally without a single running play over 30 yards this season and just one rushing gain of over 20 yards.
This Michigan offense might have sexy stats, but they have struggled at times, and Iowa wins games by playing lights-out defense. Losing offensive lineman Zak Zinter will hurt Corum and the Wolverines' rushing game, plus backup running back Donovan Edwards should also get at least 10 rushing attempts.
Corum would need a couple of significant rushing gains to exceed the number, but he has just four plays of over 40 rushing yards this season. Corum will likely hit paydirt at least once but won’t get enough attempts for his Big Ten average of 4.4 yards per carry to exceed 92.5 rushing yards.
Blake Corum prop: Under 92.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Deacon Hill was pressed into action when Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara was lost for the season with a torn ACL suffered in the Hawkeyes 26-16 victory over Michigan State. Hill has been largely inconsistent since becoming the de facto starting signal caller and has thrown more interceptions (six) than scoring strikes (five).
Still, he’s eclipsed this passing prop number in five of his eight games, beginning with the MSU contest with 4.9 yards per attempt on an average of 25.4 passing attempts per game since their victory over the Spartans.
If Hill were facing any other team, his passing yards prop would be much higher. Michigan might allow the fourth-fewest passing yards with the fourth-most interceptions nationally, but did allow 6.8 yards per reception in Big Ten play. Additionally, the Wolverines have allowed five passing plays of 40+ yards and two passes over 50. Hill will get plenty of chances to clear the prop number because I don’t believe Iowa will succeed running the football.
Finally, Hill is playing indoors in a game where Iowa will likely face a large deficit. He’s eclipsed this prop number in five of the eight games where he played at least one half and will have to sling it to win the title. The Michigan secondary has been leaky sometimes, and Hill should clear the Over 104.5 passing yards prop.
Deacon Hill prop: Over 104.5 passing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Iowa boasts one of the best passing defenses in the college game. They’ve made life miserable for opposing wide receivers this season, allowing an average of 175.4 passing yards and just five yards per passing attempt.
It’s been difficult for anyone to make headway against the Hawkeyes' passing defense, but Wolverines wideout Roman Wilson has a solid 43.5 receiving yard prop that we will attack.
Wilson has failed to exceed the prop number in the previous two matchups. Still, Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for the last three, quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been limited due to a nagging arm injury, and Michigan chose to keep it simple and rush the football.
Finally, this is a big game, and Wilson is McCarthy’s top target and pass catcher. He’s exceeded this prop number in eight of his 11 games on the year.
Look for a healthier McCarthy to take to the air more often than he has over the past few games, and Wilson will eat in what is most likely the final Big Ten game of his career.
Roman Wilson prop: Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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