Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Each team in this game is scuffling a bit, but still eyeing a deep playoff run this summer. Saturday at 8:40 p.m. EDT, the Milwaukee Bucks (32-16; 18-29-1 ATS) and Dallas Mavericks (26-22; 24-24-0 ATS) will collide for the second time this season. The first meeting came in Milwaukee, with the Bucks winning 132-125. This time, Dallas' American Airlines Center gets to play host. Will the outcome change with the venue, or are the Bucks going to sweep the season series?
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Milwaukee's Miserable Stretch
Coming into this game, the front half of a back-to-back, the Bucks have dropped three of four. The slump coincides with Joe Prunty taking over as interim coach and Glenn "Doc" Rivers becoming the head coach in place of Adrian Griffin. This team came into the season with championship aspirations, but a defensive rating that's ranked 19th in the league has raised some red flags. The Bucks are strong on the perimeter, allowing the 10th-fewest three-point attempts per game and the fifth-lowest three-point percentage. Yet, they're 28th in midrange defense, 16th at defending the rim, and force the fewest turnovers per game. They haven't benefitted from foes hitting 81.5% (30th) of their free throws. A top-10 defensive rebounding percentage rounds out Milwaukee's defense. They've been better lately, been still subpar.
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) February 1, 2024
The Bucks have been successful this season thanks to an elite offense. Milwaukee is third in offensive rating and points per game. They're first in true shooting percentage thanks to top-10 efficiency from all three scoring levels. The Bucks attempt the second-most free throws per game and have the fourth-best turnover percentage. This team is 27th in offensive rebounding percentage, but otherwise, Milwaukee's scoring attack is incredible.
Dallas Decimated by Injuries
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have dropped five of their last seven games. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum, and Dereck Lively II all missed the last game. They're all questionable for this one. Like Milwaukee, Dallas is dependent on their offense. They're 10th in offensive rating and eighth in scoring this season. Dallas is second in turnover percentage and ninth in free throw attempts per game. This team takes the second-most three-pointers per game while owning the second-highest rim efficiency. The Mavericks are 26th in offensive rebounding percentage. It has been tough shorthanded, but typically, the Mavs can score with anybody.
Which is why it's a shame that the team is 23rd in defensive rating. Their greatest flaw is allowing 67.4% shooting at the rim (29th), something that head coach Jason Kidd called them soft for. Maintaining the theme, Dallas is 28th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Mavericks are also below average at deterring threes. This defense's saving grace is forcing the 11th-most turnover per contest. Otherwise, the Mavericks struggle to pressure opposing offenses.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Rating:
If everyone plays, there's no reason that the Mavericks can't win this game. Milwaukee is a mediocre team on the road this season, with an 11-11 (8-14-0 ATS) record. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, in particular, should give the Bucks' defense fits again after each had 35+ points in Milwaukee.
Dallas shouldn't turn the ball over often against this Bucks defense. Milwaukee's weak offensive rebounding won't stress the Mavericks' shaky defensive rebounding. Expect a tight game, if not a Mavericks win, in American Airlines Center.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks +4
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Rating:
Everything about this matchup screams to take the over. The first game finished with 257 total points. NBA.com has each team as a top-10 unit in pace and offensive rating. Milwaukee is 19th in defensive rating, and the Mavericks are 23rd.
Milwaukee is the most efficient team at the rim, whereas the Mavericks are the second-worst defense at the rim. Dallas is the second-most efficient team at the rim, and the Bucks are below-average getting stops there defensively. Anticipate a ton of points on Saturday night.
Prediction: Over 252
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
