Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks, Player Props & Odds (Feb. 15)

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In the latest NBA playoff bracket, the Bucks have slipped to third in the Eastern Conference behind the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are 9-1 in their past ten games.  Memphis is 8.5 games behind the Golden State Warriors for 10th in the West in a lost season.

Grizz Snap Losing Streak Against Houston

Riding an NBA-worst nine-game losing streak into Tuesday’s game against the Rockets, Memphis finally managed to get back in the win column with a 121-113 victory. Their 2023 second-round pick, GG Jackson, continued to show promise with a game-high 20 points off the bench on 8-of-15 shooting (the fourth time he’s scored at least 20 points in 22 games this season). Jackson also had a team-high nine rebounds for a Memphis team that was once again dominated on the glass (56-46).

If you haven’t been following Memphis this year, injuries have hit the team like a freight train. Not only is Ja Morant out due to shoulder surgery, the team is also without Marcus Smart (finger), Brandon Clarke (achilles), and Desmond Bane (ankle). Derrick Rose (ankle) is still listed on the injury report, but played 16 minutes in the win over Houston and should be on the floor against tonight.

With Morant and Bane both missing large chunks of time, the Grizzlies’ offense has been anemic, and that’s putting it generously. Memphis ranks dead-last in the NBA in Offensive Rating, and it’s not close. At 107.6, they are 1.3 worse than any other team.  They sit 25th in Net Rating (-6.0) despite ranking in the top ten in Defensive Rating (113.6).

Bucks Can’t Find Any Consistency

After a miserable 1-5 stretch from Jan. 29 to Feb. 8, the Bucks looked to have turned a corner when they recorded dominant back-to-back wins over Charlotte (120-84) and Denver (112-95). But they finished their recent four-game homestand with an ugly 123-97 setback to Miami.  Milwaukee shot just 44.6% from the floor and committed 18 turnovers while getting out-rebounded 47-38.

Despite posting a 27-point, 11-rebound, eight-assist statline, Giannis Antetokounmpo was a -23 while on the court and accounted for five of his team’s 18 turnovers.

Offense generally hasn’t been the issue for Milwaukee this season. The team is fifth in the league in O-Rating (119.1), but an uncharacteristic 17th in D-Rating (115.9) after swapping perimeter stalwart Jrue Holiday for defensive liability Damian Lillard in the offseason.

Giannis remains the third-favorite in the NBA MVP odds, but at +688 is well back of both favorite Nikola Jokic (-156) and second-favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+241).

MIL vs MEM Player Props

Player props from the DraftKings app.

Giannis is listed with a game-high point total of 30.5 O/U. With a roster replete with relative unknowns, only two Grizzlies are on the board in Thursday’s NBA player props: Jaren Jackson Jr (23.5 O/U) and Vince Williams Jr (13.5 O/U).

Bucks vs Grizzlies Prediction

Milwaukee has been one of the last trustworthy teams over the past three weeks. The Bucks have lost straight-up on the road to Utah, Portland, and Houston (among better teams) and is currently one game under .500 away from home. They have faded to tenth in point differential at +3.3, but tonight’s line is still pricing Milwaukee like a dominant NBA title contender.

At +475, Memphis only has an 17.4% implied win probability. Even with all the significant injuries, they are still capable of fielding a competitive NBA team. Jaren Jackson Jr is just a year removed from winning Defensive Player of the Year.

MIL vs MEM pick: Grizzlies moneyline (+475)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

• 17-19 moneyline (+1.31 units)
• 10-10-2 ATS (-0.59 units)
• 7-12 player props (-5.82 units)
• 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.