Minnesota Twins Season Preview

2023 was a breakthrough of sorts for the Minnesota Twins, in that they won a playoff series. As their general aura would suggest, it was the first time the organization accomplished this feat in over two decades. Their roster, on paper, doesn’t put them in the absolute top tier of the league, but it’s certainly not a bad one. And with some high-risk, high-reward players on board, they seem poised to return to the top of the otherwise weak American League Central in 2024.

Minnesota Twins
2023 record: 87-75 (1st, AL Central; lost in ALDS)
2024 FanGraphs projection: 84-78 (1st, AL Central)

The Twins’ starting rotation is fronted by Pablo López, who’s been an excellent pitcher for the last four seasons, and is coming off a seventh-place Cy Young finish, which included his first All-Star selection and a 3.33 FIP across nearly 200 innings. They did, however, also lose the second-place Cy Young finisher in Sonny Gray, who had a career year at 33-years=old, in free agency. And this fits the bill for what the Twins are doing (they also traded Jorge Polanco); they won’t be the best team in baseball, but they look good enough to get the job done, given their circumstances.

Apart from Gray, Minnesota is largely running it back with the same rotation. López is excellent, and he’s backed up by Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober at the top. ZiPS sees slight upward trends for Ryan as a now-28-year-old, and slight downward trends for Ober at the same point in his career. Nothing major in either direction, and the two are similar in their ability to pump out solidly above-average performances. Chris Paddack and likely Louis Varland round out the rotation. Paddack has pitched just 27.1 innings total over the last two seasons, but ZiPS foresees a nice rebound, and he’s obviously showed promise in the majors before.

Unlike the rotation, the bullpen will feature a fair amount of fresh faces. Jhoan Durán is one of the best relievers in the sport, and will anchor the Twins ‘pen alongside Brock Stewart, who was electric in his brief time with the team last season. In 27.2 innings of work last year, the out of nowhere 31-year-old posted an eye-popping 0.65 ERA while striking out 35.8 percent of batters. In terms of the new guys, they added Justin Topa and Steven Okert via trade, and Josh Staumont and Jay Jackson via free agency, all of whom will add vital depth to this team’s pitching corps.

With a well-rounded pitching staff on board, the offense is where this team will make or break itself. From the 2019 team that saw eight different players hit 20+ homers, only one remains: Max Kepler. But, this squad has a high ceiling if the dominos fall the right way. Byron Buxton is still very much Byron Buxton, having not played in 100 games in any of the last six seasons, and only once ever, while also being able to flash some of this sport’s most tantalizing talent when things are clicking. He’s backed up by Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa in this lineup, two other high-ceiling former super prospects, the latter an actualized star.

Correa has obviously already built a a great big league career, but his second season in Minnesota last year was one of his worst (96 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR), the first of his six-year deal. Lewis, who has only played in 70 regular season major league games, has equally high potential, without the long track record. He hit 15 homers in 58 games with a 155 wRC+ last season, and was a monster in the postseason.

Lewis was plagued by injuries as a young player coming up, but if he can put together a healthy season, while the fellow injury-prone Correa and Buxton do the same, the Twins could have one of the best offensive trios in the game. Those “ifs” are carrying a lot of weight here, but the point stands; this team’s success rides heavily on the health and success of these three potential stars, particularly for a team that traded one of their better position players this offseason.

Above all, perhaps helping the chances of this team more than anything is their position amidst the AL Central. They are the only team in the division that FanGraphs projects above .500 (84-78), with the Guardians up next at 80-82. They should not be a bad team by any means, but given their competition for a spot in the postseason, they should be the fairly easy favorites headed into the 2024 season.

With a steady pitching staff and a balanced lineup that features a trio of studs if things fall the right way, the defending Central champs should like their odds again in 2024. And their floor is raised even more by sharing a division with the Tigers, Royals, White Sox, and Cleveland.