Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks

Donald W. Reynolds Razorback StadiumESPN

3-3

Mississippi State

2-5

Arkansas

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After more than a month of playing away from home, the Razorbacks will finally return to the friendly confines of Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on Saturday. Unfortunately, their last home game on September 16 was not so friendly, as the Razorbacks lost 38-31 to BYU. That was the beginning of their current 5-game losing streak that included road games at LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama as well as a neutral-site game against Texas A&M. 

Mississippi State was idle last week, but I do not think the extra preparation is going to help the Bulldogs much defensively. They have yielded the 3rd-most points per opportunity in the nation since Week 3 and rank 121st in defensive PPA over that time – around struggling power conference defenses like LSU, Indiana, Cal and Vanderbilt. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have a bottom-15 havoc rate since Week 3, which means the defense is not creating many negative plays or takeaways against recent opponents. A veteran quarterback like KJ Jefferson should be able to take advantage of Mississippi State’s defensive inefficiencies. While I lean Arkansas on the spread, I am not so confident in the Razorbacks defensively either. They have yielded 31.4 points per game during their 5-game losing streak while ranking 70th in defensive PPA and giving up the 11th-most scoring opportunities nationally over that time. Like Jefferson, Will Rogers has a great matchup against a defense that has been poor against the pass in recent weeks, as Arkansas is outside the top 90 in pass-play PPA allowed since Week 3. Given the defensive inefficiencies in this matchup, Jefferson and Rogers should be able to lead their teams to plenty of scoring opportunities – making a play on the over my recommended position in this game. 

Over 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 49.

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email [email protected].