NCAAF Week 4 Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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20 September 2023

NCAAF Week 4 Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

Boise State and San Diego State are both off to questionable starts this season, and Week 4's conference clash should produce a close outcome — which is where our college football picks are finding value.

Two of the best and proudest Mountain West football programs square off Friday night as the Boise State Broncos (1-2) head to Snapdragon Stadium to face the San Diego State Aztecs (2-2).

After a slow start to the season, both teams have expectations of putting the non-conference slate behind them and competing for a conference championship.

Neither team has found its footing, but something will have to give in what should be a hard-fought battle. I believe there’s a bit of value on one side of the college football odds, and will be targeting my best bet accordingly.

See which side I’m on and check out my full college football picks and predictions for Boise State vs. San Diego State on Friday, September 22.

Boise State vs San Diego State best odds

Boise State vs San Diego State picks and predictions

Boise State is off to a disappointing 1-2 start to the year after facing a difficult non-conference schedule. First, the Broncos were badly outgunned in a 56-19 loss to the Washington Huskies in Week 1. While that’s a bad showing in a game that many thought would be competitive (Boise was +14), the Huskies look like a juggernaut so far this season and have a Heisman contender in Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Then came an 18-16 loss against a tough UCF Knights team in Week 2, followed by an easy 42-18 victory over an FCS school, North Dakota, in Week 3.

Boise State’s defense has taken a big step back in 2023, ranking 114th in success rate and notably getting absolutely torched by both Washington (568 total yards on 9.3 yards per play) and Central Florida (530 total yards on 8.2 yards per play). The offense has yet to fully find its footing under new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan, and quarterback Taylen Green has regressed badly, completing just 52.9% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. Ashton Jeanty is a superstar at running back, but he’s managed just 4.0 yards per carry as the offensive line has yet to gel.

SDSU is 2-2 on the year but the results have not been pretty. The Aztecs’ two wins aren’t exactly inspiring — they likely would’ve lost to the Ohio Bobcats if Kurtis Rourke didn’t get hurt, and a 36-28 victory over Idaho State isn’t going to make anyone rest easy. SDSU then lost to two Pac-12 schools, UCLA and Oregon State, by a combined score of 61 to 19.

Despite the fact that both teams are off to a slow start, these are two programs that expect to annually compete for Mountain West championships. Expectations remain the same heading into conference play this season, and both coaches have made that abundantly clear. Expect a hard-fought battle between two of the Mountain West’s better squads.

With that being the case, I’m going to side with the home underdog against the spread. Neither team has looked particularly impressive so far this season — this is not a spot in which I’d have confidence taking the road team to win by over a touchdown.

SDSU is a team that I’ve faded before this season, so I’m not on any sort of bandwagon. I do like the Aztecs more as an underdog, however, especially at home. Top wide receiver Mekhi Shaw missed last week’s matchup as a precaution but is expected to return against the Broncos, which should give the offense a boost as it eventually starts to gel under first-time play-caller Ryan Lindley. It’s been a rough go of things for quarterback Jalen Mayden thus far, but I’m holding out hope considering he led the Mountain West in yards per attempt (8.6) last season and thrived under Lindley’s tutelage late in the year.

I’ve been encouraged by an improved Aztecs offensive line that ranks 30th in stuff rate and 57th in line yards — drastic improvements from a year ago. The offense showed enough signs of life that I expect them to be able to move the chains enough to keep this one close.

Give me the underdog.

My best bet: San Diego State +7 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Boise State vs San Diego State same-game parlay

San Diego State +7 (-115)
Under 45.5 (-110)

If the Aztecs are going to keep things close enough to cover the spread, I think they’d prefer to keep this a low-scoring game. Both teams are run-heavy squads that have a noticeable lack of pass-catching talent out wide, meaning both will look to keep the chains moving and the clock ticking consistently.

This two-legger SGP hopes to capitalize on that expected game flow with a correlated play. Neither offense has yet to find its footing, with both ranked outside the Top 75 in EPA per play (76th for Boise State, 107th for San Diego State). While the defenses haven’t exactly been performing up to expectations, both programs have a strong recent track record on that side of the ball and are coached by two defensive-minded head coaches in Andy Avalos and Brady Hoke. My confidence level for seeing improvement during conference play is much higher on defense, for both teams, than it is for offense.

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Boise State vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has seen a bit of early movement, moving from Boise State -7.5 at open to -6.5 for much of Monday. It’s since moved back to that key number with most books offering -7 at the time of writing.

The total hasn’t seen much movement, but early returns seem to indicate that it may be headed downward. After opening at 45.5 across the board, some books have started to show a flat 45 at current.

Health-wise, the biggest thing to monitor is the status of Broncos running back George Holani. One of the top players in the Mountain West, Holani has appeared in just one game this season while sitting out the last two contests. There has been no update on his status as of Wednesday morning, but his availability is crucial considering he’s gained nearly 3,500 career scrimmage yards while finding the end zone 27 times.

As for the total, both teams are still looking to gel on both sides of the ball, making this a handicap full of even more projection than normal. Both coaching staffs have shown a propensity to keep the ball on the ground in the past and it’s hard to have much confidence in either passing attack currently. I anticipate a slugfest where both teams look to establish their physicality, and therefore there’s reason to expect a low-scoring game as the total implies.

Boise State has gone Under the total in 10 of its last 12 road games, while SDSU has cashed the Under in seven of its last nine home games.