Missouri vs. Arkansas Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The SEC is front stage on Black Friday when the #9 Missouri Tigers (9-2, 7-4 ATS, 5-2 SEC) travel to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (4-7, 5-6 ATS, 1-6 SEC) in both teams' last game of the season. Missouri is 2nd in the SEC East, but will not be able to catch Georgia. Arkansas is dead last in the SEC West. Missouri is coming off a close home win over Florida, defeating the Gators 33-31, but failing to cover the 12.5-point spread. Arkansas just went out of conference to pick up a win over FIU 44-20, just missing the cover as 27.5-point favorites. Missouri is currently listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 EST from Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville and can be found on CBS.
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Strong Season From The Tigers
Missouri is a top 10 program and will likely get a high-profile bowl game, but will not have a resume' good enough for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Their losses were not bad, they went down to #2 Georgia 30-21, and #23 LSU 49-39. They are two games ahead of Tennessee in the standings, so they will finish second in the East regardless of the outcome of this game.
Brady Cook is 3rd in the SEC in total passing yards with 3,077 on the year, which works out to 279.8 per game. Cook is a 6'2 junior and has an 18-6 TD-INT ratio. He is coming off a big game against the Gators, throwing for 331 yards and a touchdown in the win. Two skill players have already topped 1,000 yards this season. Running back Cody Schrader leads the SEC in rushing with 1,272 yards, which is 115.6 yards per game. He has 12 touchdowns on the year and has run for over 100 in his last four games including a 205-yard game against Tennessee. Luther Burden III is 3rd in the SEC in receiving yards and averages 103.8 YPG. Burden III is a 5'11 receiver who has eight TDs on the year, and just had 158 yards on Florida.
Missouri ranks 6th out of 14 teams in the SEC in scoring with 32.8 points per game, and their defense also ranks 6th by allowing 23.1 per game. Defensive back Joseph Charleston leads the team in tackles with 57 on the year, and D-lineman Darius Robinson leads the team in sacks with 7.5. Cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine leads the team with four interceptions. The team has 13 takeaways over their 11 games.
Injury Report:
Questionable: TE Brett Norfleet (163 yards), LB Ty'Ron Hopper (55 tackles), LB Chad Bailey (17 tackles)
Long Season for Razorbacks
The Arkansas Razorbacks are in the basement of their division, and will not be playing in a bowl game this year. Three of their four wins were out of conference, including teams that typically cannot compete with the SEC. Arkansas has wins over Western Carolina, Kent State, and FIU; their only quality win on the season is over Florida. The team went on a six game losing streak in the middle of the season, and look to pull an upset in their final home game here.
KJ Jefferson will be playing in his last game as a Razorback, he has been the starter at quarterback for the past three seasons. He is averaging 191.4 passing yards per game, and also leads the team in rushing with 39.3 yards per game. On the season he has a 19-8 TD-INT ratio, and is coming off a three touchdown game against FIU. Andrew Armstrong is the top receiving threat, the 6'4 wideout averages 65.8 yards per game with four touchdowns. Armstrong has over 400 more yards than the next highest receiver on the team. The top running back has been AJ Green, he is only averaging 23.4 yards per game over his last five.
Arkansas ranks 9th in scoring in the SEC with 27.7 points per game, and their defense also ranks 9th by allowing 26.1 points per. Linebacker Jaheim Thomas leads the team in tackles with 87, and also has 3.5 sacks. Defensive lineman Landon Jackson leads the team in sacks with 6.5, and Dwight McGlotherin and Alfahiym Walcott each have three interceptions out of the secondary. The defense has 17 takeaways over 11 games.
Injury Report:
Out: RB Rashod Dubinion (260 yards), RB Raheim Sanders (209 yards)
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Best Bets for this Game
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Arkansas is going to send off KJ Jefferson the right way, by keeping this game close in his last game as a Razorback. Jefferson has been with the program for five years, and was the full time starter for the last three years. Arkansas will be motivated to close out their season strong at home. Missouri's motivation is a bit cloudier. They cannot catch Georgia for a shot to play in the SEC Championship, which almost completely eliminates them from the College Football Playoff. They will finish 2nd in the East no matter what, and will get a good bowl game from that spot. Missouri does not need this win. Arkansas has won two of their last three, and have some momentum coming into their season finale. Arkansas' pass defense is 5th in the SEC, only allowing 211.0 yards through the air. Cook will have a hard time putting up big numbers here on the road, and Arkansas will keep this one close until the end.
Take Arkansas with the points.
Prediction: Arkansas +7.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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Arkansas will not keep this close by shutting down the Missouri offense. Missouri is too strong offensively to be contained, so Arkansas' only chance to keep this close is to compete in a shootout and keep up scoring. KJ Jefferson will be playing his last game for Arkansas, and the coaching staff is going to let him air it out, as the outcome of this game will have no impact on their season. Jefferson threw for three touchdowns last week against FIU, and will keep that momentum going. Arkansas has gone over the total in their last three games, and the same will happen here. Missouri has two players with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage, their offense will not be slowed down by Arkansas. Look for a back and forth affair as points pile up on the scoreboard.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 54.5
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