MLB 'Dummy' Parlay For Sunday Involves Padres, Brewers

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Hopefully, you can use some of your betting surplus on this MLB ‘Dummy’ parlay for Sunday. Since I went 0-2 in my MLB Friday bets, I’m hoping the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers bust a slump.

If you’re familiar with my work, you’ve heard me say that these parlays aren’t exactly “advantage plays”. However, I’m up units with a 2-2 record in these stupid MLB parlays because they are always plus-money payouts.

MLB Parlay Leg #1: Boston Red Sox (11-11) at Milwaukee Brewers (15-6)

• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET.
• Ball park: American Family Field.
• Season series: Tied 1-1.

Odds

Starting Pitchers

• Red Sox: RHP Brayan Bello, 0-1 with 5 ER on 8 H, 1 HR and 1 BB with 5 K vs. the LA Angels Monday in his 2023 debut.

• Brewers: RHP Corbin Burnes (2-1, 4.76 ERA). Burnes won at the Seattle Mariners in his last start. He went 5 1/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 3 H, 1 HR and 2 BB with 3 K Monday.

Handicap

Ultimately, this is just a vibe bet. As in, I have a hunch the Brewers are going to smack the Red Sox Sunday in their rubber-match. Milwaukee’s 1st loss as a home favorite in 2023 was the series opener vs. Boston, 5-3.

Burnes is the 2021 NL Cy Young and still has nasty stuff despite unimpressive basic numbers thus far. Per Statcast, Burnes is in the 82nd-percentile for chase rate and 70th-percentile for hard-hit rate with the most movement on his fastball.

Bello got nuked in his 1st start this season and had terrible command in 2022. Bello graded in the 33rd-percentile for K% and 20th-percentile for BB%, per Statcast. The Brewers are 8th in BB/9 rate against right-handed pitching.

Milwaukee’s lineup is out-ranks Boston’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (111-100), wOBA (.341-.323), and BB/K rate (0.44-0.41). The Brew Crew are 12-5 straight up (SU) vs. righty starters and the Red Sox are 5-7 SU.

MLB Parlay Leg #2: San Diego Padres (11-12) at Arizona Diamondbacks (12-10)

• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET.
• Ball park: Chase Field.
• Season series: Padres lead 3-2.

Odds

Starting Pitchers

• Padres: RHP Yu Darvish (0-2, 3.44 ERA). Darvish lost to the Brewers 1-0 last Sunday. He allowed San Diego’s only ER in 7 IP with 4 H, 2 BB and 12 K.

• Diamondbacks: RHP Drey Jameson (2-0, 2.25 ERA). Jameson earned a no-decision in Arizona’s 8-7 win over the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday. He went 3 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 3 K.

Handicap

On paper, Arizona’s lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching than San Diego’s. But, the Padres are dead-last in BABIP and the D-Backs are 9th. BABIP is a luck-based stat and these lineups should regress or progress to the mean.

Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to the field Saturday after serving an 80-game suspension for testing positive for steroids.

Arizona’s lineup is tied for the 2nd-worst BB/K rate vs. righties in MLB. Darvish diced up a good Milwaukee lineup and took a “hard-luck” loss because the Padres batters let him down.

The D-Backs’ bullpen is 29th in WAR (-0.6), FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) and hard-hit rate and last in HR/9 rate. Also, Jameson has good stuff and is a highly-touted prospect but MLB hitters are all over him.

According to Statcast, Jameson ranks in the 26th-percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, chase rate, hard-hit rate, exit velocity, BB%, and barrel rate.

MLB ‘Dummy’ Parlay: Brewers and Padres MLs (+165) at DraftKings

• Betting strategy: For the record, I’d only wager a three-fourths unit on this parlay (example, 1 unit = $10).

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