MLB Monday Bets: Mariners Will Rake White Sox, Reds-Angels Will Be A Snoozer

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21 August 2023

MLB Monday Bets: Mariners Will Rake White Sox, Reds-Angels Will Be A Snoozer

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Week 0 in college football kicks off Saturday and I’m trying to build my bankroll ahead of football season. Unfortunately, the only way to do so is by betting MLB, which hasn’t been profitable for me this year.

Monday’s slate in baseball is pretty weak. I was able to land on two best bets in the Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds at the Los Angeles Angels. However, there are only 20 teams in action on the …

MLB Monday Card

Seattle Mariners (69-55) at Chicago White Sox (49-75)

First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET.
Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field.

Seattle rides a 6-game winning streaking including a 3-game sweep over the Houston Astros this past weekend. The Mariners are 3rd in the AL West, 3.0 games behind the 1st-place Texas Rangers, and a half-game behind the Astros.

Chicago snapped a 3-game losing skid with a 10-5 win at the Colorado Rockies Sunday. However, the White Sox are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and 15.5 games behind the 1st-place Minnesota Twins in the soft AL Central.

The Mariners send ace RHP Luis Castillo (9-7, 3.23 ERA) to the bump Monday and the White Sox counter with RHP Touki Toussaint (1-5, 4.47 ERA). This is just the start of Seattle’s 3-phase edge over Chicago.

Castillo has one of the best 4-seam fastballs in MLB and has elite command. Toussaint grades in the 1st-percentile of BB% and 4th-percentile of chase rate, per Statcast. They have the same amount of walks (37) but Castillo has pitched 100 more innings.

Furthermore, the Mariners have a massive edge in relief pitching. The White Sox’s bullpen ranks 25th in both WAR and FIP (“fielding independent pitching”), per FanGraphs. Whereas Seattle’s ranks 3rd in both WAR and FIP.

Plus, the Mariners out-rank the White Sox vs. right-handed in pitching in several advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+ (106-84), wOBA (.317-.293), and hard-hit rate (33.7-30.9%), per FanGraphs.

In August, Seattle has the 2nd-best Run Line (RL) return on investment at +32.3% and 12-6 RL. The Mariners are the much hotter team as fall ball approaches and a lot more to play for.

BET: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-115) RL at DraftKings (down to -120)

Cincinnati Reds (64-61) at Los Angeles Angels (61-64)

First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET.
Venue: Angel Stadium.

Both are falling out of playoff contention and have the same trend-line over the past month. Cincy and LAA are both 4-6 over their last 10 games, 7-13 in the past 20, and 14-16 over the last 20.

Moreover, both ballclubs are struggling at the plate in August. The Angels are dead-last in WAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (61) this month, according to FanGraphs. The Reds are 25th in both WAR (0.5) and wRC+ (83).

Reds starting LHP Graham Ashcraft (6-8, 4.89 ERA) takes the mound Monday. Ashcraft has the best “Stuff+” among qualified MLB starters, per FanGraphs. Six of Ashcraft’s eight starts since July 1 have been “quality outings”.

RHP Lucas Giolito (7-9, 4.44 ERA) is on the bump for the Angels and has been awful since being traded to Anaheim. Giolito has a 8.14 ERA (19 ER in 21.0 IP) and a 1-3 record as an Angel.

Yet three of those starts have been on the road and Giolito has pitched much better at his home in 2023. Giolito has a 2.62 home ERA this year (6.14 road ERA), a 0.90 home WHIP (1.62 road WHIP), and a 4.1 K/BB home rate (2.4 K/BB road rate).

Neither bullpen is any good. In fact, they are both in the bottom-10 of MLB in FIP. However, I’m betting their collective hitting struggles outweigh their poor relief pitching Monday.

BET: UNDER 9 (-110) in Reds-Angels at DraftKings (down to 8.5, -115)

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