Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and predictions

The Seattle Mariners (30-31) and the Los Angeles Angels (34-30) kick off a 3-game series Friday at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Angels lead 2-1

Mariners pitching has been horrendous lately, coughing up 10 or more runs in 3 of the past 4 outings — and 6 times since May 26. It’s a little surprising too, as Seattle still ranks 12th in the majors with a 4.02 team ERA while checking in with the 6th best WHIP at 1.22.

The Angels have picked up 4 straight victories, averaging 4.5 runs and allowing 2.0 runs per game. It’s no surprise that the Under is 3-1 during the impressive span.

Los Angeles won 2 of 3 meetings when these divisional rivals squared off in Seattle on April 3-5. Seattle’s lone victory was an 11-2 rout in the middle contest as it outscored L.A. 17-13 in the series.

Mariners at Angels projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani

Castillo (4-3, 2.55 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 70 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 2-0 road loss vs. the Texas Rangers last Friday
• 2023 Road splits: 0-2, 3.91 ERA (23 IP, 10 ER – 4 HR) with a .256 OBA in 4 starts

Ohtani (5-2, 3.30 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 71 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in a 6-2 road loss vs. the Houston Astros last Friday
• 2023 Home splits: 3-1, 2.31 ERA (39 IP, 10 ER – 3 HR) with a .154 OBA in 6 starts

Mariners at Angels odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.

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Mariners at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Angels 5, Mariners 2

The ANGELS (-135) are a solid play at home in this series opener with Ohtani on the bump.

Ohtani has already beaten the Mariners once this season, allowing just 1 ER, 3 H and 4 BB with 8 K across 6 IP to earn his 1st victory of 2023 on April 5.

The Halos have won 5 of the past 7 meetings in this series, are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and have cashed 9 of the past 11 series openers.

The ANGELS -1.5 (+155) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line behind Ohtani.

The Mariners have been hemorrhaging runs lately, going 1-4 in the past 5 games as underdogs on the run line and losing by 7 or more runs in each of their past 3 losses.

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The total is very low, but that’s the ‘Ohtani Factor’. When he is on the bump, the shops adjust accordingly. I actually expect the total to come right in on the number, but if I had a lean, it would be to go lightly on the Over.

The best play is to AVOID, and just focus on the moneyline and/or run line.

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