MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/10)

We luckily have a fairly full slate of games for this Monday, with a wide range of pitching matchups. With some teams playing more games or setting their rotations up differently we have several matchups with Opening Day starters facing other teams’ number five starters. Let’s dive into my favorite bets of the week. All Odds From DraftKings Sportsbook.

Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Bets

Season Record: 3-2

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians – 6:10 PM ET

In one of the Ace vs. Five Starter matchups of the day, we have the Guardians and Yankees. Cleveland is sending Shane Beiber to the mound, and he has gotten off to a great start thus far in 2023. However, his K/9 is down to begin the season, and it makes his profile a bit riskier. He has always allowed loud contact but limited walks well enough and struck out enough hitters to get away with the loud contact. He has allowed a 0.270 wOBA in his career the first time through the order, and while the Yankee’s order is excellent, he has enough skills to keep them off the board in the first inning.

On the other side of the coin, the Yankees are sending Domingo German to the mound. German was excellent in his first start despite what appears to be disappointing numbers. He had the strikeout stuff working, and he was burned by two home runs. He has actually struggled the first time through the order in his career, but the Guardians’ offense is flawed and does not strike fear in me. I like this bet a lot today.

Pick: -135

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 PM ET

There are a number of angles to this bet, but most notably, this is a bet against the Athletics offense. Kyle Gibson is a perfectly serviceable starter, but he is normally not one who wows us. Throughout his career, Gibson has had a 0.309 wOBA the first time through the order, and while this doesn’t jump off the page, the Athletics offense is so poor that we should be able to get through this lineup with ease. This is even more so with the recent loss of Seth Brown, who was arguably the Athletics’ best hitter and will be going on the IL with an oblique injury.

For the Athletics, JP Sears takes the mound. Sears was part of the Frankie Montas trade and struggled after the trade. After his minor league career, where he posted K/9 numbers above 9, he saw this number drop in 2022. His first appearance of 2023 showed the K upside again, and while he was hurt by the long ball, the skills are there for him to be a great starter. The Orioles have a 151 wRC+ against lefties to begin the season, but the K% is elevated at 28%. This is definitely the risky side of the bet, but I like the talent of Sears enough to take this chance.