MLB win total odds and predictions: Over/under picks for all 30 teams
The MLB season is fast approaching with teams getting deep into their spring training schedules and waiting for their stars to return from the World Baseball Classic.
Taking a glance at the win total over/unders for 2023, it’s apparent that many of the league’s traditional powers — like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros — are expected to fare well once again. Some familiar cellar dwellers, meanwhile, are projected for characteristically rough seasons.
Below are our MLB win total odds and best over/under prediction for all 30 teams.
MLB win total odds
Five American League teams won 90-plus games in 2022, including the Toronto Blue Jays. It marked Toronto’s second consecutive 90-plus win season.
The Blue Jays are projected to clear that total again, alongside some of the league’s heavyweights. For more on Toronto, check out the team’s odds to win the AL East as well as our Vladimir Guerrero Jr. futures markets.
American League
The 2023 AL projects to be characterized by competence rather than excellence.
There are just three teams with a win total over/under above 90 (the Astros and New York Yankees, in addition to Toronto), but that line sits above the .500 mark for two-thirds of the Junior Circuit’s clubs.
Perhaps the most surprising line on the board belongs to the Texas Rangers, who haven’t posted a winning percentage above .481 since 2016 and won just 68 games last season.
Splashy additions like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and, most recently, Jacob deGrom are expected to elevate the ailing franchise.
The AL Central looks like it will be an unpredictable mess once again as it has three credible contenders for its crown but no team that looks particularly likely to threaten for a triple-digit win total — or make a deep postseason run.
MLB odds as of 3:38 p.m. on 03/08/22.
Best Bet:Athletics over 59.5 wins (-106)
Let’s be clear, Oakland is not going to roll out a good team in 2023. Even so, this win total requires them to be horrific.
During 2022’s trainwreck, they hit this over, and they haven’t fallen below 60 wins in a full season since 1979.
Billy Beane has a knack for coaxing respectable records out of no-name squads, and we expect a crafty front office to get the most out of its group during a potentially chaotic season full of rule changes.
We’re also intrigued by a reworked rotation featuring top prospect Ken Waldichuk and Japanese import Shintaro Fujinami.
FanGraphs projects Oakland will win 70 games in 2023, and we aren’t prepared to say they’re off by 10 games.
Toughest call: White Sox under 83.5 wins (-125)
Chicago has a promising position-player core, quality at the top of its rotation a couple of enviable bullpen arms. The loss of Jose Abreu in the middle of the lineup hurts, though.
This club went just 81-81 last year with a -31 run differential and didn’t add much outside of Andrew Benintendi in the offseason.
This group seems to chronically underachieve. While some of that has been attributed to former manager Tony La Russa, Miguel Cairo didn’t get much out of the White Sox in a 34-game stint at the end of last season, going 18-16.
If incoming skipper Pedro Grifol strikes the right chord with this group it’s possible to envision a year where they take a stranglehold over the weak AL Central — but another year of plodding mediocrity is at least as plausible.
National League O/U odds and predictions
The National League is divided into more clearly stratified tiers than its counterpart.
The Dodgers, New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres are in a league of their own while there looks to be no shortage of bottom feeders in no danger of touching .500.
The St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are in a category of their own as teams capable of fighting for playoff berths, but unlikely to be seen as one of NL’s top powers.
Last season Philadelphia made a run to the World Series despite its middleweight status, and it would be unwise to rule out any of those three teams — especially the Cardinals and Brewers, who have the luxury of playing in the soft NL Central.
The NL East will be the division to watch this season as the Mets and Braves are two of the most talented teams in the majors — and New York is running a historically high payroll.
The teams finished with identical 101-61 records last season, and we could see a similarly tight finish this year. The Phillies are hoping to crash the party thanks to their potent power bats, elite rotation and the addition of star shortstop Trea Turner in the offseason.
MLB odds as of 3:38 p.m. on 03/08/22.
Best Bet:Cubs under 78.5 wins (-121)
Chicago retooled its roster significantly in the offseason, but not in a way that gives us much confidence in this team.
The Cubs’ projected starting lineup includes five players that weren’t with the team in 2022, but it’s not an impressive group of imports. Dansby Swanson is the big addition, and he’s an impact player — but the other four are not.
Trey Mancini is an unbelievable story but he hasn’t produced 1 fWAR in a season since 2019. Cody Bellinger is coming off two straight dismal years with the bat, Eric Hosmer hasn’t been even an average starter since 2017 and Tucker Barnhart hit .221/.287/.267 in 2022.
That group of retreads is backed by a Marcus Stroman-led rotation that looks middling at best and a bullpen with just two pitchers projected for a sub-4.00 ERA — one of whom is the always-injured Julian Merryweather.
FanGraphs pegs this group for 75 wins and that seems like a stretch.
Toughest call: Brewers over 84.5 wins (-127)
Milwaukee won 86 games last year and FanGraphs projects them for 84 this year, so this line is clearly in the right area.
It’s easy to look up and down this lineup and wonder where the runs will come from. They need new backstop William Contreras to be an offensive force like he was with the Braves last year despite his limited track record.
A bounce-back season from Jesse Winker is also a necessity to give the middle of this lineup some oomph.
Unless Christian Yelich rediscovers his power, there’s a relatively low ceiling on this offence. But the pitching is outstanding.
Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff provide an elite one-two punch while Freddy Peralta is just one year removed from an all-star campaign. A bullpen led by Devin Williams is also looking potent.
We like this team to squeak past this line thanks to its top-notch run prevention, but we wouldn’t be shocked if the bats simply couldn’t get the job done.
