MLB Picks for August 20: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
The start of the NFL regular season is right around the corner, but don’t forget about the MLB! Baseball is hitting the home stretch, and there’s still plenty up for grabs. Each team has roughly 40 games left on their schedule, and there’s plenty of action to choose from on Sunday.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers onDraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics:
The Pick: Orioles -1.5 runs (-120)
I’m not going to overthink this one. The Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball this season, while the A’s have been one of the worst teams in history. They’re a ridiculous 55 games below .500, and they’ve dropped the first two games of this series by five runs apiece. They’re now 1-5 vs. the Orioles on the season, and they’ve been outscored by 15 runs in those matchups.
Will today’s matchup be any closer? I don’t think so. The Orioles will turn to Kyle Bradish, one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He owns a 3.18 ERA through 22 starts, and that figure has dropped to 2.87 since the All-Star break.
Bradish also grades out as one of the best pitchers in baseball using Stuff+. Among pitchers with at least 120 innings this season, Bradish trails only Graham Ashcraft and Spencer Strider in that metric. That puts him slightly ahead of guys like Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and Shohei Ohtani, who are regarded as some of the “nastiest” pitchers in baseball.
The A’s will have one of their better starters on the mound in JP Sears, but that’s a pretty low bar to clear. Sears still owns an xERA and FIP over five, so he’s far from a good pitcher.
Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies:
The Pick: Under 12.0 runs (-110)
Coors Field is known for offensive production, but it’s not able to work miracles. It might turn singles into extra-base hits more often than any other park in baseball, but it doesn’t help you put the bat on the ball.
The White Sox are finding this out the hard way. They’ve managed just six runs through their first two games in Colorado, including a one-run performance on Friday. Their offense has been dismal all year, so playing this game on the moon wouldn’t be enough to help them.
The Rockies’ offense has shown up in this series, but they’re going to have to face Dylan Cease on Sunday. Cease has regressed massively from his 2022 campaign, which saw him finish second in the AL Cy Young voting. However, Cease clearly still has talent. He’s striking out more than 10.5 batters per nine innings, and his 3.71 FIP is a quality mark.
Slowing down the Rockies’ offense has not been a difficult task for most of the year. They’re 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, which is better only than the White Sox. Even at Coors, 12.0 runs feels like too much to ask for these two squads to hit on a regular basis.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals:
The Pick: Zack Wheeler over 18.5 outs recorded (+110)
There aren’t a ton of “innings eaters” left in the major leagues, but Wheeler is a throwback. He’s someone that can routinely pitch deep into ball games, and he’s recorded at least 20 outs in four of his past six starts. Wheeler has averaged more than 100 pitches per game for the Phillies in 2023, which is the top mark in all of baseball.
The Nationals stand out as an excellent matchup for Wheeler to pitch deep into a game. They’ve averaged just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance, which is tied for the second-lowest mark in the league. They’re a notoriously tough lineup to strike out, which is a good thing when it comes to pitch counts. Balls in play can lead to some fluky occurrences, but it generally allows you to pitch more efficiently.
When the Nationals do put the ball in play, they don’t tend to do much damage. They’re 24th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they drop to 29th in ISO. They also rank just 26th in hard-hit rate vs. right-handers, so a lot of their contact is subpar.
Wheeler has gone just 11 innings in two previous starts vs. the Nationals this season, but I think this is a good spot for him to turn things around.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbookand bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbookand all odds are subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
