MLB Picks for August 3: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

We’re back in the green, people! After a stretch in July that saw us fall allllll the way back to .500 for the season, we finished the month with a perfect 3-0 night last Friday, bringing our record on article plays back to 43-40-1. I wasn’t nervous at all. I definitely wasn’t thinking about retiring from gambling altogether. Not me. No sir.

Let’s try and stay hot on tonight’s small MLB slate.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees

It’s been difficult to trust Cristian Javier the last two months, but I really liked what I saw from the RHP in his last start against the Rays. Yes, Javier hung a first inning slider to Brandon Lowe which immediately turned into a three-run home run; but after that, the 26-year-old was more than solid, tossing five straight scoreless frames to keep his team in the game. The most encouraging part? Javier struck out nine while also posting a massive 20.2% swinging strike rate. A lack of whiffs has been the major difference between Javier in 2022 and 2023. If he’s generating swing and misses again, he’s deadly.

The other major aspect of my lean towards the Astros is lineup production. Houston is healthy for the first time in months, with both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez off the IL. That adds two All-Star bats to a lineup that was already red-hot coming out of the break. Since the Midsummer Classic, the Astros are one of five clubs with 100 runs scored. Their 122 wRC+ is the sixth-best mark in baseball within that span. Meanwhile, the Yankees have struggled to a .141 ISO and an 88 wRC+. Look at these batting orders next to each other for even half a second. It’s pretty obvious where the advantage lies.

On paper, this pitching matchup is extremely one-sided. Sonny Gray was a deserving All-Star this season and — thanks primarily to maintaining an insane 0.31 HR/9 — the veteran RHP’s 2.93 FIP is among the best marks in all of baseball. He’ll be opposed by Matthew Liberatore, a man who does carry some serious prospect pedigree, yet also owns an ugly 7.58 xERA across the 32.0 innings he’s worked at the MLB level in 2023. If we’re all being honest, it’s clear that Liberatore is back with the Cardinals not because he’s earned it, but because St. Louis just traded half its rotation at the deadline.

So, where does this bet start making sense? Let’s just say I don’t trust the Twins as road favorites, especially when they’re playing outside their terrible division. Minnesota is 34-39 against non AL Central opponents and 25-30 away from Target Field. Additionally, the Twins have been without question the worst lineup in MLB versus left-handed opponents like Liberatore, ranking dead-last in batting average (.219), wOBA (.288) and wRC+ (83) within the split. You can’t win if you can’t score. Just ask Gray. Despite his best efforts, Minnesota is 4-11 in his last 15 starts.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.