Fantasy Baseball Picks: Diamondbacks vs. Phillies DraftKings MLB DFS Showdown Strategy for October 24

Sometimes good things happen in life. Sometimes you wake up a minute before your alarm clock was supposed to go off. Sometimes you get an 11th chicken nugget in that box of 10 from McDonalds. Sometimes you get a Game 7 on back-to-back days in the MLB playoffs.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will take the field at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday evening, trying to prevent the Philadelphia Phillies from making their second World Series appearance in the last two seasons. It doesn’t get any bigger than this.

Let’s break it down from a Showdown perspective.

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Bryce Harper ($14,400 CP) - Harper was held without a hit in Game 6, seemingly the first time in the postseason that the former All-Star has let down the fans in Philadelphia. Still, Harper came into Monday’s loss slashing .343/.511/.771 with a 230 wRC+ in his first 47 plate appearances in this year’s playoffs. To suggest he’s risen to the moment in a Phillies jersey would be a massive understatement. Opposing Harper, at least to start, will be rookie Brandon Pfaadt ($11,000), who has looked like a phenom in his last two outings. Still, in a much larger sample in the regular season, Pfaadt surrendered an eye-popping 2.22 home runs per nine to LHBs. I’ll give Harper the advantage in his second look at Pfaadt this series, and Harper will also match up well when Torey Lovullo inevitably goes to the lefties in his bullpen later in the game. Harper posted a .221 ISO and a 137 wRC+ against southpaws in 2023.

Ketel Marte ($12,600 CP) - I’m not quite sure how Marte is only the sixth-most expensive positional asset on this slate, but I’ll gladly take the discount, particularly with the infielder set to hit leadoff against the left-handed Ranger Suarez ($11,400). Marte has multiple hits in four of this series’ six contests, including two doubles off Suarez in the Diamondbacks’ Game 3 victory. That’s not exactly a fluke performance, either. Not only was the switch-hitting Marte at his best versus LHPs during the regular season — he hit .313 with a 138 wRC+ within the split — but the 30-year-old has always had success in his head-to-head meetings with Suarez, with eight hits and a 1.056 OPS in 18 career at-bats.

FLEX Plays

Christian Walker ($8,200) - Walker has been ice cold throughout the NLCS, but I wouldn’t give up on the slugger just yet. Like his aforementioned teammate, Walker has also had a lot of regular season success against Suarez, slashing .313/.476/.563 in his 16 career at-bats against the southpaw. While that could simply be a matter of small sample sizes, it’s crucial to note that Walker managed a .406 expected wOBA off LHPs in 2023 — the 14th-highest qualified mark in all of baseball. The man can hit lefties.

Brandon Marsh ($5,800) - So much was made about Marsh’s torrid start to 2023, yet the outfielder has been quite good the past few months — maybe even better. Marsh posted a 142 wRC+ following the All-Star break and that success has carried into the playoffs. In fact, with two more hits in Game 6, Marsh has reached base in every game in this series, while he raised his postseason batting average to an impressive .343. During the regular season, Marsh registered an .862 OPS and a 133 wRC+ off RHPs like Pfaadt.

Jose Alvarado ($4,000) - You’re always taking a chance using a reliever in Showdown, but I can’t imagine many scenarios where the Phillies don’t use their best bullpen arm in a Game 7 setting. Heck, considering he’s only thrown six pitches since the beginning of Game 4, Alvarado could even be used for multiple innings in a close contest. The left-hander is the ideal RP for this format, as he racks up strikeouts in bunches. In 92.1 innings dating back to the start of 2022, Alvarado has 145 punchouts.

Fades

Brandon Pfaadt ($11,000) - If I’m being 100% honest, I don’t really trust either starter in this contest, though I’d lean Suarez if need be. I mean, did anyone just watch the Game 7 we got on Monday night? Cristian Javier was pulled in the first inning. Max Scherzer didn’t make it to the fourth inning and he wasn’t even pitching that poorly. Managers have zero leash with starters in a do-or-die environment, and it’s not like Pfaadt had all that long a leash to begin with. In his 18 regular season starts, Pfaadt surrendered an insane .779 opponent slugging percentage his third time through the order. As we saw in Game 3, that means no matter how well he’s pitching, he’s not getting more than 18 batters. Add that to the fact that the Phillies’ .840 postseason OPS leads baseball, and you can see why I’m hesitant to drop the bag on the 25-year-old right-hander.

THE OUTCOME

For as much as the Diamondbacks feel like a team of destiny, I have to side with the Phillies on Tuesday. Lineup depth and bullpen talent will mean so, so much in Game 7 and I think Philadelphia has a noticeable advantage in both areas. Also, despite losing at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, the Phillies are still 6-1 at home in the playoffs. The place will be rocking and Philadelphia will get it done.

Final Score: Philadelphia 5, Arizona 3

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.