MLB Picks Today: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for October 20
Let’s be completely honest. We haven’t gotten the absolute best baseball this year in October. There’s been lopsided games, horrible pitching performances and, of course, lineups that couldn’t get a clutch hit to save their own lives — I’m looking at you Dodgers and Blue Jays.
However, that’s what makes a contest like Game 3 of the NLCS special. That’s what gives us hope that the final three games of the ALCS will be memorable. That’s why we watch. Well, that and we usually have money on the game. That’s important, too.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday’s action on the diamond.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Marte was the hero of Game 3, with a walkoff single against Craig Kimbrel in the bottom of the ninth to give Arizona its first win of the NLCS. It was a fitting result, as Marte’s basically been the only Diamondbacks hitter able to get anything going consistently against the Phillies’ pitching. In fact, for the playoffs as a whole, the 30-year-old is slashing .371/.389/.657 with a 180 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances. In layman’s terms, Marte is red-hot and he profiles well to continue his torrid play in Game 4 against Cristopher Sanchez and Philadelphia’s bullpen.
Sanchez will make his first-career postseason appearance on Friday after a very positive regular season. The 26-year-old started 18 games for the Phillies and threw 99.1 innings in total, maintaining excellent marks in both ERA (3.44) and xERA (3.77). Really, the lone area the left-hander struggled was keeping the ball in the park. To wit, Sanchez surrendered a ghastly 1.78 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs, despite an elite 57.0% ground ball rate. Marte, a switch-hitter, should be able to take advantage of this flaw. The former All-Star was at his best in 2023 when facing a lefty, hitting .313 with a 138 wRC+ in his 199 PAs within the split. However, I’d only expect Marte to get two looks at Sanchez before Philadelphia turns to its pen. No matter. Marte was also well above average against RHPs, with a .221 ISO and a 122 wRC+. In a contest where the infielder might see four different pitchers, he’s pretty much matchup proof.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
We’ve been hearing a lot the last 24 hours about Houston’s ability to win games on the road. There’s good reason for that. The Astros were second to only the 101-win Orioles when it came to winning percentage away from home during the regular season, with Houston coming out victorious in 63.0% of those 81 contests. The Astros are also a stunning 26-12 (68.4%) as road underdogs in 2023, while they’ve already started the playoffs 4-0 in Minnesota and Arlington. Needless to say, they don’t mind batting in the top of the first inning.
The criminally underrated Jordan Montgomery will be on the hill for Texas on Friday, a tall southpaw who is currently in possession of a 2.08 ERA and a 2.85 FIP through 17.1 postseason innings. That includes 6.1 scoreless frames versus this same Houston lineup on Sunday. That said, the Astros have their own ace taking the bump in the form of Justin Verlander. They’ve also demolished LHPs to the tune of AL-best marks in both slugging percentage (.470) and wRC+ (122) — as was very evident when Andrew Heaney was only able to record two outs in his start in Game 4. In fact, Houston’s racked up 23 hits and 18 runs the past two nights. The Astros just feel like a buzzsaw and I’m not sure Montgomery has the raw stuff to shut them down twice in the same week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
