MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions, Odds for April 18

I normally don’t love backing teams after a blowout win, but I’m steadfast in my conviction that this is a get-right series for the Astros. I still think they are the best team in the American League, even though the record may not say it. The Blue Jays are fantastic, but I think the Astros have the starting pitching, bullpen, and home-field advantages. The Blue Jays have a slightly better lineup, but when the Astros’ offense starts to roll, that’s not a team you want to be on the other side of.

Let’s talk about Chris Bassitt. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, I think he’s in for a very rough year. It’s already started, posting a 7.63 ERA, 7.71 xERA, and 7.76 FIP. As you can see from the image below, nothing is going well for him. He’s not getting hitters to chase, his command is off, and he’s getting hit hard.

He’s going up against an Astros offense that’s hit him hard before when he was a better pitcher on the A’s in the Astros division. He had his best year with Oakland in 2021 and still surrendered an 8.38 ERA against the Astros that season. Through 80 PA against the Astros’ current offense, he’s allowed a .349 xwOBA, a .267 xBA, and a .515 xSLG. Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman are a combined 11-29 (.379 AVG) with two doubles and four home runs. The image below reflects what Chris Bassitt has done so far this season.

Jose Urquidy isn’t the best pitcher in the world, but he’s made major changes to his pitch mix that should work well against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are one of baseball’s best against fastballs, and last year’s Urquidy would have gotten smashed based on his profile. He didn’t perform well against them, allowing six earned runs in 10.2 innings. To his credit, it was in back-to-back starts, and his first start against them in Houston was quality, throwing 5.2 innings and allowing two earned runs. In the start following that one in Toronto, he allowed four earned runs in five innings.

The changes Urquidy made this season is cutting his fastball usage in half, which is huge against the Blue Jays. His sweeper was solid last year, so he doubled that usage, and it’s been very effective, posting a .171 xBA and .311 xwOBA. These changes have allowed much more soft contact, ranking in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity. This has contributed to his 2.35 ERA and a 3.39 xERA.

The Astros didn’t throw their best relievers yesterday, and they have that advantage. The Blue Jays’ offense is better on paper, but the Astros have the better matchup. I’ll take the Astros again because I believe they continue to roll.