White Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, odds: We have a first-5 play to target

We have a White Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction as Chicago looks to snap its four-game losing streak. Next up for the White Sox is Monday matchup in Toronto.

At 7-15, it’s been a disastrous start for Chicago, yet it still only trails the division-leading Twins by five games. Lance Lynn will get the start for the Pale Hose, while the Blue Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt.

Both starters come into this ballgame with a 5+ ERA. However, there are signs that one might have already turned the corner.

In this preview, I’ll reveal who that pitcher is and how I plan to take advantage of his upswing at the betting window.

Moneyline: CHW (+125) vs. TOR (-155)

Spread: CHW +1.5 (-155) vs. TOR -1.5 (+125)

Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Blue Jays F5 ML (-145)

White Sox — Lance Lynn (0-2, 7.59 ERA) vs. Blue Jays — Chris Bassitt (2-2, 5.40 ERA)

My last White Sox preview also involved a Lynn start, and we correctly faded him against the Phillies. The veteran right-hander had another poor showing, allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings.

If White Sox fans search for any positives, they might point to Lynn escaping without allowing a home run. However, his command was again an issue, as he allowed three walks in the contest.

And while FanGraphs’ advanced metrics point to Lynn having some positive regression based on his 6.16 xERA and 5.90 FIP (both are lower than his 7.59 ERA), those numbers are still pretty woeful.

I looked at Lynn’s game log, and he is starting to utilize more of the bottom part of the strike zone. In back-to-back starts, he’s posted a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or higher.

But as long as he continues to have traffic on the base paths, he remains likely to leak some runs.

If we turn to Bassitt, he’s still working to lower his ERA after his season debut, in which he allowed nine runs in 3 1/3 innings. That outing gave him a 24.30 ERA to start the campaign.

However, in his past three appearances, he produced a quality start, allowing no more than two earned runs in either outing. In his most recent outing against the defending champion Houston Astros, Bassitt didn’t allow a run in 6 1/3 innings of work.

Bassitt’s head-to-head numbers against this White Sox team also seem favorable. According to Baseball Savant, in 32 plate appearances, Chicago’s current roster has an xBA of .187 with a .294 xWOBA.

Toronto’s lineup also clearly has the edge, given its above-average wRC+ value of 108 compared to a below-average value of 93 for Chicago.

With the Blue Jays as high as a -155 favorite for the entire game, I recommend backing them on the first five moneyline to take advantage of the shorter price at -145.