MLB Playoff Odds: Philadelphia Phillies Vs. San Diego Padres Game 1

Forbes

18 October 2022

MLB Playoff Odds: Philadelphia Phillies Vs. San Diego Padres Game 1

The two lowest seeds are left standing in the National League, with the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres facing off in the NLCS. The Padres have earned home-field advantage after knocking off a pair of 100+ win teams. The Phillies have emerged from the No. 6 seed to find themselves one step away from the World Series.

Oddsmakers have the Padres favored at -120, with the Phillies at +105. Many observers believe this series could go six or seven games, with both teams getting excellent pitching thus far in the MLB Playoffs.

The Padres seek their first world championship: Only twice in franchise history has the team advanced to the World Series, in 1984 and 1998, when better teams trounced them. The Phillies have won the Fall Classic twice, in 1980 and 2008. Their most recent trip to the World Series came in 2009.

DraftKings, one of the leading legal betting sites, prices the Padres at +300 to win the World Series, and the same sports betting app has the Phillies at +360. The Houston Astros, hosts of Game 1 of the ALCS on Tuesday evening, are +145 favorites.

We have a betting guide to help you choose your MLB bets for this series, the ALCS and World Series.

Phillies vs. Padres: Game 1 Betting Preview

Game Details

Who: Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
When: Tuesday, Oct. 18
Time: 8:03 p.m. ET
Where: Petco Park (San Diego, CA)

Betting Odds Summary

Moneyline: Phillies +105, Padres -125
Runline: Phillies +1.5 (-205), Padres -1.5 (+175)
Total: Over/Under 6.5 Runs (-120/+100)

Starting Pitchers

Wheeler (0-1, 2.19 ERA in postseason) vs. Darvish (2-0, 3.00 ERA in postseason)

The entire country is getting to see how good Zack Wheeler is. The Phillies righthander has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in his last three seasons. He battled through forearm tendinitis a month ago and is in top form this postseason. In each of his two playoff starts, Wheeler has looked the part of an ace: 175 pitches, 147 for strikes, only six hits and two walks in 12 ⅓ innings, and no home runs.

In May, Wheeler faced the Padres, tossing seven shutout innings while striking out nine and walking none. He was dominant, but that lineup did not include Juan Soto or Josh Bell. Both were acquired later at the trade deadline.

Wheeler has been stellar in three career starts at Petco Park: 2.12 ERA in 17 innings with an eye-popping 28-to-4 strikeout/walk ratio.

The most crucial player in this series may be Darvish, who has looked masterful in his two postseason starts for the Padres. The crafty veteran hurler has gone Full Darvish this postseason, utilizing his myriad of pitches, as many as seven or eight in all when you account for speed. He will use a hesitation delivery, go over the top for an eephus, or spot his patented cut fastball.

Darvish has been 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at Petco Park in 2022. In 13 innings against the Phillies this season, he’s allowed three earned runs while recording 14 Ks and zero walks. In the regular season, Darvish led the NL in expected slugging percentage (xSLG) vs. actual slugging percentage, which illustrated how he avoided letting batters barrel up his pitches.

Most importantly for what we may see on Tuesday, batters are averaging 85 mph in exit velocity against the San Diego starter, the lowest rate for pitchers who have at least 10 innings, according to MLB.com’s Baseball Savant, which uses StatCast data.

Hot Hitters

Every postseason, a player emerges to become a folk hero. This fall, it seems like Jake Cronenworth is that guy in sunny San Diego. The former Michigan Wolverine had seven hits in the four-game Division Series win over the Atlanta Braves, including a homer and a critical hit in the five-run rally that won Game 4. Cronenworth reminds us a lot of Adam Kennedy, another left-handed hitting middle infielder who went ballistic with his bat in the playoffs for a SoCal team.

For Kennedy, it was in 2002 for the Angels when he was named ALCS Most Valuable Player. We like Cronenworth’s short, compact swing and knack for being in the mix for scoring sequences. He’s coming off a .438 average (with a .625 SLG) in the last PS series.

Trent Grisham (three HR in seven playoff games) and Manny Machado (.357 against the Braves in the NLDS) are the other San Diego hitters to watch. But keep an eye on Machado’s strike zone chart. Machado could struggle if Wheeler and the Phillies staff work down and away, as he’s had difficulty against pitches on the outer edge of the plate.

The below-the-radar batting star of the Phils’ NLDS victory was Jean Segura, who batted .462 with six hits and eight total bases in the four games. He’s trying to put the barrel on the ball, along with adjustments based on the game situation. He’s one of the best options for a two-out run-scoring hit in this lineup.

Bryce Harper has a chance to put another stamp on his envelope to the Baseball Hall of Fame. He smacked two homers in the NL Division Series, has been focused at the plate with tough at-bats, and his six RBI leads the team in the playoffs. With two MVPs, a Rookie of the Year Award, a Home Run Derby title and seven All-Star appearances to his credit before his 30th birthday, all that remains for Harper is a title. This spunky, talented Phillies roster is his team, and this is his opportunity to get his ring.

J.T. Realmuto is another player to watch, as he quietly had a solid NLDS. The same goes for Nick Castellanos, who had five hits in four games against the Braves.

Our Best Bet Today

Yu Darvish to Record the Win (+230)

Darvish has two wins this postseason, and we like the odds at +230 from DraftKings for the veteran righthander to notch his third. Bob Melvin has already shown his preference for letting Darvish pitch out of tough spots in the middle innings.

We expect the Padres starter will get at least as far as the sixth inning, if not later. While this might be a nailbiter, go with Darvish to win for a $230 profit on a $100 wager.

Only a handful of starting pitchers have recorded as many as four wins in a single postseason. The last to do so was Stephen Strasburg for the Washington Nationals in 2019.

Our Same-Game Parlay

The Phillies and Padres will meet in Game 1 of the best-of-seven series on Tuesday night in San Diego. Here’s our same-game parlay selection using the DraftKings parlay builder:

Yu Darvish to Record 5+ Strikeouts
Josh Bell to Get a Single (-175)
Manny Machado to Record 1+ RBI (+175)

Odds on this same-game parlay are +575, which means your winning bet of $100 gets you $575 plus your original wager.

We like Darvish to spin a good game again for the Padres, especially at home. Josh Bell is 8-for-26 (.308) with two homers against Zack Wheeler for his career.